Holy War in Pakistan

[brownjenkins]

She wasn't a particularly good leader, if you look at her history. What was more important is what she represented, a viable challenge to military control which has been the real power in Pakistan since it's formation.

For a purely pragmatic, and cold-hearted, point of view, she will probably be more effective in terms of positive change as a martyr than she would have been as a leader.

[sisterandcousinandaunt]

I would probably be more valuable as life insurance, but that hasn't been the vote, yet.

Small comfort to one's loved ones.

[brownjenkins]

To true! But she knew what she was getting into and, from what I've heard/read, almost expected eventual assassination.

Everyone dies eventually, and we become only the memories we leave. Her's were pretty impressive, all told.

[The Gaffer]

Looking like she was done in by factions within the security services. Nice.

Imran Khan seems to be keeping his head down. Probably wise.

[Lief Erikson]

Originally Posted by The Gaffer

Looking like she was done in by factions within the security services. Nice.

According to who? I know there are rumors to that effect, as was of course to be expected given the political climate in the country right now.

The suicide bombing aspect of the attack suggests that it's the work of radical Muslims. They're the ones with real motive, anyway. Any action against Bhutto automatically damages Musharaff's government. Plus, without its figurehead, the opposition is less easily controlled and therefore more unstable. That's very dangerous for Pakistan.

[The Gaffer]

Reports in the papers here attributed to MI6, saying they believe she was killed by members of the security services.

But it looks as though she was shot before the blast. The official government account (she died from banging her head against the side of her car) looks pretty risible.

We may never find out though. There was no post-mortem and the street was power-hosed clean within hours of the attack.

[Coffeehouse]

And now, Zardari in power, with a plethora of corruption charges littering his past. I wonder..

[Nurvingiel]

At least they had an election though, that says something right?

[Coffeehouse]

They did manage to hold an election and that's always a good sign. But you just get the feeling that with the 3.5 million Pashtun residing in the FATA, the tribal areas of North and South Waziristan (+ a few neighbouring territories), the haven for Taliban's operations in Afghanistan and the (probable) hiding place of Bin Laden that there is... ... no end in sight.

I just wonder if this new President won't make the same mistakes that P. Musharraf did. And hear me, P. Musharraf was no idiot. That guy has some very progressive views of what direction Pakistan should take (had a decent economic record in his years in power), and yet he failed in every respect in dealing with terrorism (what a task in a nation of 170 million!).

A little over a year ago, before the bombing of the Red Mosque, I had hopes for P. Musharraf. Although his rule has been a weird mix of military rule and semi-law-abiding presidency, in essence not very democratic, he has still avoided authoritarian rule. There has been freedom of press, there has been a vibrant political life in a multi-party system. He tried to base his rule on support in the Parliament, often with a very active opposition. And I understand the circumstances that made him take control of the country.
I even had hopes that he would be able to solve the political crisis of last fall, but it's become obvious that the rule of law that he wanted to get in place, was something he abused in the end. And that's when his time was up! So the solution that I would propose, seeing that Pakistan has a quite strong judicial branch, a country of many able lawyers and judges, that one of the top priorities for Zardari is to reform, fix (the existing, impoverishd rule of law) and establish a transparent and all-encompassing system of laws that works. One that the people of Pakistan can have faith in. That I think, is the only way that 170 million people can live together without the crazy levels of violence that occur so frequently, and that are disrupting not only economic development, but the defeat of terrorism and Taliban in the tribal areas. Pakistan should, ironically, look to India. And if they don't want to look to India, then look to Turkey.
It's a long-shot, but the secular state that Turkey has put in place has enabled it to avoid an endless cycle of military coups and madness, and it has stabilized the country to such an extent that EU membership is on the horizon. That's a feat.

Zardari will most likely, and rightly so, try to get his hands on the Taliban and terrorists in tribal areas by convincing the people there that supporting them is a one-way ticket to more poverty, more war, more bloodshed. If he can get across that message, giving carrots and not sticks, there may be hope. It's so easy to thread wrong though.. and with his record of corruption who knows how long he will stay committed until he is caught up in the politics of Islamabad, and then he's another lost case. Do I sound pessimistic?

[Lief Erikson]

Here are some updates you're probably all already familiar with.

Pakistan has basically surrendered a large chunk of its territory, inhabited by about 1.5 million people, to the Taliban. They arranged a ceasefire under which that territory, which is dominatred by militants, has Sharia Law enforced throughout it.

And Afghanistan has gotten a lot worse, according to reports from the top US commander in the field. President Obama has sent an additional 17,000 US troops there and is pushing for reinforcements from Europe, which they're being pretty slow to provide.

The ceasefire between Pakistan and the Taliban also means militants will be crossing that Afghanistan-Pakistan border all the more easily.

Also, it recently came out that Pakistan has been secretly permitting the US to use its military bases to launch our drone attacks on the Taliban. This flies in the face of their previous condemnations of US attacks on the Taliban in their territory and is likely to create deeper friction between Pakistan's new government and its population.

Posters, in your views, what are our prospects in this conflict, and how would we do well to proceed?

[Jonathan]

Do you have some online sources that one could have a look at for further information?

[Coffeehouse]

Originally Posted by Jonathan

Do you have some online sources that one could have a look at for further information?

Well most of the information posted here by Lief is quite general stuff. Doesn't take much of an effort to find it really.. If you're interested, here's a few links for general information (it's Wikipedia mind you so any bold statement should be taken with a pinch of salt) that I think should be relevant:

And here's a map



- Concerning the FATA, or Federally Administered Tribal Areas, which consists of western Pakistan where Islamists including Taliban and al-Qaeda supporting factions have taken a good foothold among the fierecely independent-minded and tribal Pashtun populations (there are also Tajiks and other nationalities inhabiting this area, with occasional inter-tribal, inter-ethnic clashes)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal...d_Tribal_Areas

- Concerning Sharia Law in FATA, there is an excellent article by the Independent: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...n-1623810.html

- Concerning the deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan: there are many sources to be found at realclearpolitics.com.
One by the Christian Science Monitor: http://www.csmonitor.com/2009/0217/p09s01-coop.html

- Concerning the worrying tendency of Talibanisation and foothold in the FATA, here is a quite comprehensive article by Asia Times Online:
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/KB19Df01.html

- And finally on the lack of troops committed by some European nations, particularly in my view the French, Germans and Italians (whom are all falling well below their means and potential): A Reuter's article detailing this:
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNe...50J0NQ20090120

On the last matter I think you're absolutely right Lief, these countries are moving so slowly (largely due to domestic opposition and political risks), it's disgraceful. My own country Norway, and neighbouring Denmark, particularly the latter, I think are contributing quite a number compared to our small armies. It's annoying to see the larger European countries back away from a cause that is so important. And the Obama Administration is right to push hard on them to commit more. I have to ask: do they want nearly 8 years of commitment in Afghanistan to fall to pieces, letting Taliban regain its foothold? It'll be the death of NATO credibility.

Will write another post later to discuss some of the points you brought up Lief

[Insidious Rex]

Originally Posted by Lief Erikson

Here are some updates you're probably all already familiar with.

Pakistan has basically surrendered a large chunk of its territory, inhabited by about 1.5 million people, to the Taliban. They arranged a ceasefire under which that territory, which is dominatred by militants, has Sharia Law enforced throughout it.

And Afghanistan has gotten a lot worse, according to reports from the top US commander in the field. President Obama has sent an additional 17,000 US troops there and is pushing for reinforcements from Europe, which they're being pretty slow to provide.

The ceasefire between Pakistan and the Taliban also means militants will be crossing that Afghanistan-Pakistan border all the more easily.

Also, it recently came out that Pakistan has been secretly permitting the US to use its military bases to launch our drone attacks on the Taliban. This flies in the face of their previous condemnations of US attacks on the Taliban in their territory and is likely to create deeper friction between Pakistan's new government and its population.

And dont forget the Pakistani's release of A.Q. Khan, the man that happily sold nuclear secrets to Iran and North Korea (and god knows who else). Not a good combination of events I would say and certainly points to the weakness of the current Pakistani government.

[Lief Erikson]

Agreed.

Isn't Khan presently under house arrest?

Originally Posted by Jonathan

Do you have some online sources that one could have a look at for further information?

Yeah, like Coffeehouse said, it's pretty general information. I got it all off online news reports from BBC, CNN and the LA Times. The LA Times has the most thorough articles on these matters, of the three. Here are some more articles for reading on these matters, in addition to those Coffeehouse linked.

Here's a good LA Times article on the Pakistani ceasefire with the Taliban:
http://www.latimes.com/news/printedi...,7834580.story
Here's an article about the US drones being used in the military base in Pakistan:
http://www.latimes.com/news/printedi...,7834580.story
Here's an article on the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan, and President Obama's response:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...prss=rss_print

I originally got that off a different article, though, which said US officials had recently confirmed it. I'm having a little trouble locating that article at the moment, though.

[Coffeehouse]

Originally Posted by Lief Erikson

Posters, in your views, what are our prospects in this conflict, and how would we do well to proceed?

Interesting question Lief

The North-West of Pakistan holds the answer to many things.. stability in Islamabad, a democratic Pakistan, the war in Afghanistan and even the conflict in Kashmir between Pakistan and India (situated on the other side of Pakistan, in the north-east).

At least in a NATO-perspective, (winning the war in Afghanistan and defeating the Taliban's ability to distabilize development), there is much dependent on what goes on up in the hills and mountains of north-western Pakistan: the Federally Administrated Tribal Areas and the Northwest Frontier Province.

If I were to present a concise answer, I would say that I think that until the Pakistani government is able to deal effectively with the instability of this region, then the Taliban will continue to pose a threat to both democracy in Pakistan and the development of Afghanistan.
Yet Afghanistan faces many problems beside Taliban that can prove just as challenging: chronic, widespread corruption, a no-end-in-sight problem with opium production and an astounding high level of illiteracy.

Thus, for the foreseeable future, until Taliban is removed from the Hindu Kush mountains, from the Federally Administrated Tribal Areas and Northwest Frontier Province, in fact, is completely wiped off the face of Pakistani soil, there will be no solution in Afghanistan.

This is how and why.

We definitely seemed to be unlucky when al-Qaeda and Taliban leadership managed to escape from the battle in Tora Bora and into the White Mountains between Afghanistan and Pakistan (the Durand Line). Had Pakistan had a decent control of their border we might have been able to corner Taliban before they managed to regroup. More so, had the Pakistani government actually been in control of one of its own provinces things might have looked very difficult for Osama bin Laden.

But as we now know, bin Laden and al-Qaeda along with numerous other Islamic Jihadist organisations and Taliban leadership found refuge high up in the mountains in the winter of 2001-2002.

Crossing into Pakistan after having been chased away by American and NATO forces, they walked into a territory that has been semi-autonomous since 1947. A rare gift indeed.

The FATA and Northwest Frontier Province constitute a region in Pakistan that is home to one of the most fiercely-independent minded populations on the face of the planet. They seem to have given a bloody nose to every single occupying power that has tried to subdue and control its population.. the Persians, the Hindus, the Mughals, the Durrani, the British and every other lesser empire inbetween.

As far as I've understood the FATA and Northwest Frontier (NWFP) have been pretty much independent for centuries. A pronounced warrior-culture, interwined with a fierce brand of Islam, has produced tribes that have held on to their historical ways in a region with steep hills, extremely rugged terrain and little arable land. It looks both astonishingly scenic but also hard-weathered.





After 1947, the independence of Pakistan, the tribes in this area (with a population of well over 3 million people!) have had several agreements with Islamabad and is in fact represented in the parliament there. Officially the region is a part of Pakistan. But after the war in Afghanistan began the government has virtually no say on any matter in the region. They are powerless. This is ideal for the Taliban and they have exploited it to the full.







Here is the entire area (showing the extent of Taliban control) in question, as of January 2009, located on the Hindu Kush mountain range separating Afghanistan from Pakistan.



This article in the Long War Journal paints a picture an example of the situation, in the Swat Valley, in the north of the region, : http://www.longwarjournal.org/archiv...le_pakista.php
"The Taliban consolidated control in Swat over the past several months after nearly two years of fighting. Led by Mullah Fazlullah, the Taliban have defeated the Army, destroyed the police force, established a shadow government, and imposed sharia."

"The Taliban takeover of Swat has proven to be a source of embarrassment for the Pakistani government of President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Yousef Gilani. While the Taliban have quietly taken control of nine of the 24 districts in the Northwest Frontier Province and six of seven of the tribal agencies, the fall of Swat has garnered international attention. In a briefing to Parliament last fall, a senior Pakistani general, unable to hide the dire situation, admitted Swat, Shangla, and "other districts" are under Taliban control."

"After a half year of brutal fighting, the government negotiated a peace accord with Fazlullah in May 2008. Fighting restarted in July 2008. The government said the operation would be completed by September of 2008, yet six months later Swat is in the hands of the Taliban."

It seems to me, that a conflict that the Pakistani government seem completely unable to handle on its own, and which has such profound consequences for the war in Afghanistan, requires greater involvement of the international community.

Albert Einstein once said "We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them". This region has seen so many short-sighted solutions backfire on them. The British' brilliant idea of divide and rule, the USSR aggression into Afghanistan, the CIA's and Pakistani government's covert cooperation with the Mujahedeen, the influx of millions of Afghan refugees since the 1980's and a similar influx of weapons and munitions from the West and the East. The list goes on. Pakistan, the international community and the NATO forces, need to understand that a quick-fix is the last thing this region needs.

A poverty-stricken and forgotten place, the population here have been chronically forgotten by the Pakistani government whom have neither provided the resources nor showed any will in trying to tie the region into Pakistan not as a geographical piece of land, but as an equal partner. We need to show the people in Waziristan, the Swat Valley and Kohat that there is an alternative (right?) to the dark reality that Taliban-rule and its kind of Islam teaches. That such an alternative actually can be something better like access to education, access to the economy and that the millions of Afghan refugees that currently reside there aren't the regions burden, but the burden of the international community.

That's what I have to say about that

[Lief Erikson]

Thanks for all the history and supporting information you brought into it!

Over time, I've been coming to realize more and more how little I know. I don't have a very steady view on what should be done, but I do look toward the future of Afghanistan and Pakistan with deep concern. I've had trouble for some time seeing it as a war we'll end up winning, because of the historic, religious, economic, cultural, geographic and strategic problems you brought up in your post. Western culture is alien to those tribes, and their religion and culture teach them to regard much of Western culture with disdain.

[Coffeehouse]

Originally Posted by Coffeehouse

It's so easy to thread wrong though.. and with his record of corruption who knows how long he will stay committed until he is caught up in the politics of Islamabad, and then he's another lost case.

5 months later... I hate being right Yet again Pakistan is on the brink of disaster in its fragile democratic game. Zardari has shown himself to be more incompetent and more riddled in the politics of Islamabad than even Musharraf.

[Lief Erikson]

And now full scale war is wounding the country. I can only hope and pray for the military's success.

So far, the military is claiming successful operations, hundreds of militants dead and few casualties of their own. I'm not sure whether to believe them or not. If it is true, this is wonderful . . . I'd hate to find out that those were actually almost all civilians, though.

[Coffeehouse]

Originally Posted by Lief Erikson

And now full scale war is wounding the country. I can only hope and pray for the military's success.

So far, the military is claiming successful operations, hundreds of militants dead and few casualties of their own. I'm not sure whether to believe them or not. If it is true, this is wonderful . . . I'd hate to find out that those were actually almost all civilians, though.

It seems that the problem in Pakistan is that parts of the ISI (Pakistani intelligence service) and thus by extension the military, do not want to defeat the Taliban. There are generals and officers sympathising and supporting the Taliban and the reasons are two-fold: The Taliban, along with all the radical Islamists that they affiliate with, have been instrumental for the Pakistani military in fighting in Kashmir. For Pakistan India is the number one problem and there really is nothing that will convince them otherwise. They see a threat from India, it's nuclear weapons-possessing Hindu nemesis, and possession of Kashmir isn't just of symbolic importance to the Pakistani State, they also view it as an exsistential threat. Look at the map and compare Kashmir to the location of Pakistan's capital, Islamabad, and you'll see why.

The other reason for the Pakistani military to finance and support the Taliban is the political landscape in Afghanistan. For the Pakistanis it has been very important to have a pro-Pakistani government in Kabul, for fear of not being completely entrenched by enemies on all its borders. Thus the Pakistani did during the 1990s support the Taliban, encourage their take-over of Kabul in 1996, and stood as the only country in the world that recognized the legitimacy of the Taliban government in the entire period from 1996 up to its fall in 2001.

But now their policy has backlashed like no other. The Pakistani military and state have supported radical Islamists to such an extent that Taliban has started growing inside of Pakistan. The FATA and the NWFP are tribal areas, lying next to the mountainous Afghan border. They have been forgotten by the state in terms of economic prosperity, education, law enforcement and not to mention the rampant corruption of local state officials. This has enabled the Taliban, whom seem to have been radicalized by the Wahhabist Islam streak of Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda, to gain a foothold in the tribal areas. They have murdered hundreds of tribal elders and sought to implement strict Shar'ia law. It's led to a weakening of the legitimacy of the Pakistani state, and as a consequence the government in Islamabad has negotiated agreement after agreement ceding more authority and legitimacy to the Taliban each time they have come down a new area.

If we add the unwillingness of the army to crack down heavily on the Taliban and the occurence of state fragmentation over the past years we get a strong Pakistani Taliban whom actually pushed within 60 miles of the capital (albeit separated by a mountain range) to the disrict of Buner.

I think that was the wake-up call. The Pakistani gov't and the military, seeing that the Taliban, not India, is standing on its doorsteps, are taking action now. They've also become embarassed by the likes of Hillary Clinton whom accused the government of 'abdicating' last week.

So the problem for the Pakistani army, with the strength of about 650,000 soldiers (one of the largest armies in the world) isn't so much that they can't evict the Taliban from f.ex. the Swat district. The problem is gaining the authority and legimitacy that they have ceded to local religious institutions and whom the Taliban have capitalized on.

They also have another potential nightmare on the horizon. If the Taliban manage to capitalize on this situation, convincing locals that all the military's engagement is leading to deaths and destruction and that it is actually an attack on not only their religious convictions but their Pasthun identity, then there is a real threat. For the moment the Pakistani gov't must convince the people in tribal areas that they are not seeking to subjugate the Pashtun (the majority of the military consists of Punjabis), because if they don't they might get a Pashtun nationalist movement on their hands and that would spell something of a secession of the territories I think. It would be a complete disaster for Pakistan, the war in Afghanistan, the US and NATO and the entire region.

It would also be a whopping Taliban victory.

[Insidious Rex]

Thus far it seems the refuges from those regions are pretty down on the Taliban themselves which of course is a plus for the Pakistani military campaign. When the Taliban took over rule of the areas it seems they acted with such extreme fundamentalist hostility toward the populace (who for the most part were accepting of them) that many now support the idea of their elimination. I heard a quote form one refuge saying essentially The Taliban is not our friend after all and is causing so much trouble and pain to the people. I dont care who bombs them, the americans or the (Pakistani) army. Just kill them. I dont care anymore. So this likely means the Pakistanis have a window of opportunity to make inroads against the Taliban for now. We'll see how long it lasts though...