Saruman'a actions in summer 3018

[Gordis]

What has really happened between the three Istari (Saruman, Radagast and Gandalf) in summer 3018?
Let us look at Saruman's actions and motives closer.

Gandalf had been fond of hobbits ever since the Long winter (2758-60), long before Bilbo has found the Ring. He didn't hide his interest from Saruman and

Seeing then that Gandalf thought the Shire worth visiting, Saruman himself visited it, but disguised and in the utmost secrecy, until he had explored and noted all its ways and lands, and thought then he had learned all that there was to know of it. And even when it seemed to him no longer wise nor profitable to go thither, he still had spies and servants that went in or kept an eye upon its borders. For he was still suspicious. He was himself so far fallen that he believed all others of the Council had each their deep and far-reaching policies for their own enhancement, to which all that they did must in some way refer. "Concerning Gandalf, Saruman and the Shire" UT

So, in summer 3018 the One Ring is hidden in the Shire. Saruman doesn't know it is there, but is very much aware of Gandalf's interest in this land.
Then Saruman suddenly learns that the nazgul - all nine - have crossed the Anduin and are searching for "the Shire". How did he learn it? Most likely from Radagast - because how otherwise the Brown Wizard, who always stayed as far as possible from politics, got involved in this story? Radagast must have learned from his birds and beasts that his neighbours, the two nazgul of Dol Guldur, set forth, crossed the river, met the other seven and rode north together, asking questions. Radagast did what was his duty: he immediately went to inform Saruman - the head of his order.

Here Saruman most likely put all the loose ends together: Gandalf is interested in the Shire and goes there a lot, the nazgul try to find the Shire, and there is hardly any other errand than the search for the One Ring that would make Sauron send all the Nine to wander across western lands. The last bit can be proven by Saruman's words to the Morgul-Lord: "It is not a land that you look for," he said. "I know what you seek, though you do not name it."- UT)
So, finally, before midsummer 3018, Saruman understands that the One is in the Shire, maybe in Gandalf's direct keeping, maybe in the keeping of one of the hobbits under Gandalf's supervision.
Saruman's next move is to invite Gandalf to Orthanc, using the unsuspecting Radagast. Why? Most likely Saruman hopes that Gandalf will come bringing the Ring with him. That's why he orders Radagast to tell Gandalf the news about the nazgul. Would the Grey wizard leave the Ring unprotected?
But that was not what happened. Gandalf came alone without the Ring. And here Saruman's actions do not make much sense, IMO. He took Gandalf out of the picture, imprisoning him in Orthanc. But he did nothing about the Ring. Why didn't he ride like the wind to the Shire himself, to get there before the nazgul?

And if I knew where this thing was hid, I should not be here, but long gone before you to take it.

- says Saruman to the nazgul in UT. But he lied. He DID know! Well, maybe he didn't know the name of "Baggins" (likely the nazgul only asked about "the Shire" at first, and started asking about "Baggins" only beyond the Sarn Ford), but still, he could have found Bag End easily - as it was the place that his colleague Gandalf was known to visit. A couple of questions, a small amount of charm and persuasion and he would be led to Frodo. The rangers at the border would have let him pass - wasn't he the head of the White Council? Frodo would have had no suspicions of him - didn't Gandalf speak highly of Saruman? He could have taken the Ring there and then, or carried Frodo to Orthanc - if he had daring enough.
But it seems Saruman hadn't got enough guts for it. He did the silliest thing - removed Gandalf and left the Ring completely unprotected for the nazgul to take. Or, considering that Gandalf had means to transmit the news of danger to the Ringbearer, prior to going to Orthanc, he left the Ringbearer enough time to make his way to Rivendell, where the Ring would be beyond Saruman's grasp.
What was it? Miscalculation? Cowardice?
What do you think?

[The Dread Pirate Roberts]

Perhaps Pippin, (or was it Merry?) was right in saying that Saruman didn't have a lot of guts for straightforward confrontation, preferring to use his pawns rather than risk himself (though what risk the Shire held for him seems minimal).

Or perhaps he was preoccupied with his war on Rohan.

You make an excellent point, Gordis. He could have kept Gandalf by his side and never even let on he was a traitor. "Gandalf, the Nazgul are heading for the Shire. They think the Ring is there. If you know anything about it, we must go there now, together, and keep it from the enemy!" Or some such playing along.

He fell due to his pride, obviously, but it still made little sense when you think about it as you've laid out.

[Jon S.]

Perhaps it's an internal-to-the-story author's error (akin to why Elrond's Council did not even consider, even if they would have ultimately rejected the idea, having the Eagles fly the Ring to Mt. Doom and drop it in)?

[Varnafindë]

Originally Posted by Jon S.

Perhaps it's an internal-to-the-story author's error (akin to why Elrond's Council did not even consider, even if they would have ultimately rejected the idea, having the Eagles fly the Ring to Mt. Doom and drop it in)?

It quite possibly is - and it is fun to try to find what the reason would have been if it had been intentional.

Saruman keeping Gandalf out of things would make sense if he was doing some Ring hunting himself. He had been searching for it in the River Anduin for long enough ...

[Gordis]

Yet the only thing Saruman did after capturing Gandalf was to send some spies to the Shire - one of them was the famous squint-eyed Southerner.

Some while ago one of Saruman's most trusted servants (yet a ruffianly fellow, an outlaw driven from Dunland, where many said that he had Orc-blood) had returned from the borders of the Shire, where he had been negotiating for the purpose of "leaf" and other supplies. Saruman was beginning to store Isengard against war. This man was now on his way back to continue the business, and to arrange for the transport of many goods before autumn failed. He had orders also to get into the Shire, if possible, and learn if there had been any departures of persons well-known recently. He was well supplied with maps, lists of names, and notes concerning the Shire.-UT

But did Saruman really think he had all the time in the world? The Southerner was only on his way to the Shire when he was overtaken by the nazgul.

Had Saruman gone to the Shire straight away, he would have had two months to search for the Ring and to bring it to Orthanc.

[Coffeehouse]

I'm being purely speculative here, but could it be possible that Sarumann thought that the Nine would somehow not find their way to Frodo's house?

But that of course does not quite add up with what happened in Bree. Did not the Southerner assist the Nine? Pointing out the room where Frodo, Sam, Pippin and Merry lived for example.

Myself, I can't square Sarumann's actions and words relating to the hunt for the Ring. Is there something we're missing or is it a glaring inconsistency?

[Gordis]

Originally Posted by Coffeehouse

I'm being purely speculative here, but could it be possible that Sarumann thought that the Nine would somehow not find their way to Frodo's house?

That would make Saruman very stupid - or did he have so much ESTEL?

But that of course does not quite add up with what happened in Bree. Did not the Southerner assist the Nine? Pointing out the room where Frodo, Sam, Pippin and Merry lived for example.

The Southerner got caught by the Nazgul on their way to the Shire (see UT). He surrendered his maps and lists of names - which helped the ringwraiths a lot to find Bag End. The Witch-King put a spell on Saruman's spy "the Shadow of Fear", changing his loyalties. In Bree he served only Mordor.

Is there something we're missing or is it a glaring inconsistency?

Let us try to find what we may be missing, before we declare it a glaring inconsistency.

[The Dread Pirate Roberts]

Maybe PJ was right and Saruman really was serving Mordor, not himself?

[Coffeehouse]

Originally Posted by Gordis

That would make Saruman very stupid - or did he have so much ESTEL?


The Southerner got caught by the Nazgul on their way to the Shire (see UT). He surrendered his maps and lists of names - which helped the ringwraiths a lot to find Bag End. The Witch-King put a spell on Saruman's spy "the Shadow of Fear", changing his loyalties. In Bree he served only Mordor.


Let us try to find what we may be missing, before we declare it a glaring inconsistency.

That would make Sarumann very stupid yes.......... .............

So the Southerner was caught prior to Bree. Well that falls right into place with what I think, and that was that Tolkien intended for Sarumann's character to want the ring for himself, not hand it to Sauron.

But it's puzzling that Sarumann did less to obtain the ring. First things first, when did Sarumann know that the ring was the One? Anyone know?

[Earniel]

I doubt Saruman left Orthanc very often at this stage, he seemed to prefer working through agents rather than doing any dirty job himself. (Typing that just brought up a rather funny mental image of Saruman standing to his skinny knees in the Anduin, with his robes tucked in his belt and a seeve in hand to dig out the One Ring from the sand...)

So maybe he didn't want to go himself into Shire, and while he had spies and business ties there, he may not have had any servant in the Shire that he dared to trust with handling the Ring and bringing it to Orthanc.

And going himself may have been too risky. Saruman was pretty paranoid by now, thinking every member of the White Council had its own hidden agenda and was acting solely for their own betterment. He may not have dared going himself, without knowing what the others were up to. He may even have feared a trap for himself. Perhaps by detaining Gandalf he hoped he could force the others into the open and reveal their plans? If Gandalf was in league with others, and Gandalf disappeared, the others would have been forced to conduct any business in the Shire themselves or maybe search for Gandalf. Saruman may at that point have been trying to find out who Gandalf's associates were.

I also think Saruman wanted to prevent at all costs that Sauron learned about the whereabouts of the Ring through him. If Sauron was watching, Saruman's sudden visit to a land where he hadn't been in a while may have attracted undue attention. Even if a personal visit could bring the Ring into Saruman's possession, he couldn't risk letting Sauron learn about it too quickly. I daresay Saruman desired to have time to study the Ring before claiming it and facing of the former owner.

I also doubt Saruman would have been able to walk into Bags' End so easily. While Gandalf spoke in decent terms about him to Frodo, Saruman had no idea of knowing how he would be received. Nor do I think it very likely that wizardy types could get into Hobbiton and into Bags' End without neighbours knowing. Gandalf was a known character in the Shire, if sometimes considered a nuisance, Saruman was unknown.

[Varnafindë]

Originally Posted by Gordis

The Witch-King put a spell on Saruman's spy "the Shadow of Fear", changing his loyalties. In Bree he served only Mordor.

With the spy - fair enough.

But it would have taken a very strong spell to change Saruman's own loyalty and make him serve Mordor rather than himself.

I don't think any such spell was put on him. Not even through the Palantir.
He was still trying to pursue his own interests.

[Coffeehouse]

I agree with that Varna, and it's a fair assessment Earniel, but it still leaves at least one question unanswered.

For all his uncertainties as to what Gandalf and Radaghast and others were up to, did he not realise that when the Nine were heading for the Shire that he had to act? Instead he decided to lock up Gandalf and let the whole search for the ring unfold without any influence by him whatsoever until after the Fellowship left Rivendell. Seems like a high risk to me or am I missing something..

[Gordis]

Originally Posted by Varnafindë

But it would have taken a very strong spell to change Saruman's own loyalty and make him serve Mordor rather than himself.
I don't think any such spell was put on him. Not even through the Palantir.
He was still trying to pursue his own interests.

No doubt of it - and his actions prove it. He lied to the nazgul, he tried to seize the Ring at Amon Hen right under Sauron's nose. The question is why did he let go such a stellar opportunity to get the ring in summer 3018?

Originally Posted by The Dread Pirate Roberts

Saruman could have kept Gandalf by his side and never even let on he was a traitor. "Gandalf, the Nazgul are heading for the Shire. They think the Ring is there. If you know anything about it, we must go there now, together, and keep it from the enemy!" Or some such playing along.

That would be far too risky. Gandalf would likely see the deception straight away. Saruman was able to fool Radagast,

At first I feared, as Saruman no doubt intended, that Radagast had also fallen. Yet I had caught no hint of anything wrong in his voice or in his eye at our meeting. So Saruman guessed, and he had concealed his mind and deceived his messenger.

, but Gandalf was wiser and more powerful and was already wary and suspicious of Saruman.
No, imprisoning Gandy was a smart move. But it had to have a follow-up - Saruman had to go to the Shire either impersonating Gandalf (Saruman in TT was able to appear quite similar to Gandalf), or as Saruman the White, Gandalf's replacement. "I am sorry for bearing bad news, Frodo, but our dear friend Gandalf got eaten by wargs/captured by Sauron/drowned in the Anduin. I come in his stead, o worthy hobbit, to help you with your burden. The Nine are hunting for you. Trust me - I will take you to safety." Why, even Aragorn might have bought this story!

Originally Posted by Earniel

I doubt Saruman left Orthanc very often at this stage, he seemed to prefer working through agents rather than doing any dirty job himself. So maybe he didn't want to go himself into Shire, and while he had spies and business ties there, he may not have had any servant in the Shire that he dared to trust with handling the Ring and bringing it to Orthanc.

Well one has to do some dirty work if one wants to take over the world. It is not for lazy-bones. And the time was getting shorter by the minute. How long could the nazgul search for the Shire?

Originally Posted by Earniel

And going himself may have been too risky. Saruman was pretty paranoid by now, thinking every member of the White Council had its own hidden agenda and was acting solely for their own betterment. He may not have dared going himself, without knowing what the others were up to. He may even have feared a trap for himself. Perhaps by detaining Gandalf he hoped he could force the others into the open and reveal their plans? If Gandalf was in league with others, and Gandalf disappeared, the others would have been forced to conduct any business in the Shire themselves or maybe search for Gandalf. Saruman may at that point have been trying to find out who Gandalf's associates were.

It was no puzzle. Gandy's associates were Elrond and Galadriel and other members of the White Council. Saruman knew it all along. And then again - the Ring can only be on one hand. So- if he supposed Gandy wanted the One for himself, there would be no associates among the Wise, only rivals. Why give them time to rally? He had to act ASAP!

Originally Posted by Earniel

I also think Saruman wanted to prevent at all costs that Sauron learned about the whereabouts of the Ring through him. If Sauron was watching, Saruman's sudden visit to a land where he hadn't been in a while may have attracted undue attention.

That is a very good answer. It may explain - partly- Saruman's inaction.

Originally Posted by Earniel

Even if a personal visit could bring the Ring into Saruman's possession, he couldn't risk letting Sauron learn about it too quickly. I daresay Saruman desired to have time to study the Ring before claiming it and facing of the former owner.

Of course he did, but there was no time. Now or never. He has got a second chance at Amon Hen - and that one he seized immediately, regardless of the fact that Sauron would learn who had got the Ring straight away, regardless of the fact that Sauron would certainly attack.

Originally Posted by Earniel

I also doubt Saruman would have been able to walk into Bags' End so easily. While Gandalf spoke in decent terms about him to Frodo, Saruman had no idea of knowing how he would be received. Nor do I think it very likely that wizardy types could get into Hobbiton and into Bags' End without neighbours knowing. Gandalf was a known character in the Shire, if sometimes considered a nuisance, Saruman was unknown.

I don't see any problem here. A visit to his business associate Lotho, a couple of questions and here he knocks on the green door of Bag End. It is not like hobbits normally shot unknown wizards on sight. And whether Frodo is friendly or not, it matters little. A knock on the head, a quick search of the body and back to Orthanc. Let the little people sound the alarm - he would deal with them later.

[Earniel]

Originally Posted by Coffeehouse

For all his uncertainties as to what Gandalf and Radaghast and others were up to, did he not realise that when the Nine were heading for the Shire that he had to act? Instead he decided to lock up Gandalf and let the whole search for the ring unfold without any influence by him whatsoever until after the Fellowship left Rivendell. Seems like a high risk to me or am I missing something..

True enough, there are a few usable arguments as to why Saruman didn't immediately go himself, but it does feel off that he did absolutely nothing in between. Or rather, nothing that had a result worth mentioning or anything that came to attention of any chronicler. Which lead me personally to believe that his inaction is due mainly because Tolkien needed Saruman to capture Gandalf and do nothing that could impede Frodo for story-wise reasons. But looking for in-book explanations does have its fun.

There is always the possibility that Saruman did act, did something other than build his army and taunt Gandalf. But we never learned what, only that it obviously didn't work.

Originally Posted by Gordis

Well one has to do some dirty work if one wants to take over the world. It is not for lazy-bones. And the time was getting shorter by the minute. How long could the nazgul search for the Shire?

Hahah, world dominiation, not for push-overs. I doubt Saruman had what it takes, he probably didn't want to get his shiny robes dirty.

But he did have some measure of time. The nazgul only got real close the evening when Frodo left Hobbiton, this was months after Gandalf's disappearance. Could it be (purely and wildely speculating here) that Saruman was planning something, but that he needed time? Time to forge and strengten all the relationships he had in the Shire? He didn't get Lotho in his pocket in the blink of an eye, even that took some time. Time to perhaps raise an army that would keep Sauron's eye off Saruman's other activities? It was in Saruman's interest to keep Frodo in the Shire as long as he could, where Saruman knew where he was, if his spy information was that accurate at the time. If Gandalf hadn't been captured, Frodo would have departed far earlier, and would have been far more difficult to catch in the wide wilderness.

The nazgul themselves took quite a long time to land on Frodo's doorstep too. Would Saruman have invested some of his time to prevent them of finding him sooner? I don't think he for example sent out a few hobbits shouting 'I'm a Baggins' to lure the nazgul away from Hobbiton, but he did know the Shire better than the nazgul. So perhaps he spent more time keeping the nazgul away rather than advancing himself.

I don't see any problem here. A visit to his business associate Lotho, a couple of questions and here he knocks on the green door of Bag End. It is not like hobbits normally shot unknown wizards on sight. And whether Frodo is friendly or not, it matters little. A knock on the head, a quick search of the body and back to Orthanc. Let the little people sound the alarm - he would deal with them later.

I don't know, I still don't think it would be quite as straight-forward. Too... Eagle-ish.

[Zilbanne]

Possibly Saruman couldn't act quite independently as we all think. He seems to be both hiding some of his actions from Sauron and is also controlled by Sauron at least to some degree, having to speak to the dark lord, through the seeing stone.
Remember when Sauron tells Pippin to just say to Saruman that "this " (the ring) isn't for him. ?

He couldn't risk leaving Orthanc himself without Sauron wanting to find out why.

[Coffeehouse]

One reason may be that Sarumann knew the Rangers were keeping an eye out on the area. Which leads to me a question which is sort of off-topic for this thread; where were all these Rangers in the miles between the Shire and Rivendell? Weren't there supposed to be more than Strider roaming the area? They certainly must have done a poor job of it by the looks of it.

In any case, the Red Book of Westmarch is not an all-telling account of what happened that summer and fall so there may be plans by Sarumann that failed but never saw the light of day from the POV of the 'good side'.

[Attalus]

Originally Posted by Jon S.

Perhaps it's an internal-to-the-story author's error (akin to why Elrond's Council did not even consider, even if they would have ultimately rejected the idea, having the Eagles fly the Ring to Mt. Doom and drop it in)?

*sigh* The Eagles would have been spotted and the whole "destroy the Ring" gambit would have failed. As I have repeatedly posted, one troop of Uruks in the Sammath Naur would have been Middle-earth's undoing.

[Jon S.]

Saruman's actions are really not even worth further thought compared to Sauron's. At the point in time where he knew Frodo had the Ring, had he *literally* bent all his will and resources towards it, it would have been a short story instead of a novel. That is truly inexplicable to me.

[Galin]

In The Hunt for the Ring text C (Christopher Tolkien is inclined to think this version is the latest in order of composition) the Riders arrive at Orthanc the same day Gandalf escapes (see note 15 and compare Appendix B).

Saruman is then said to have believed that the Ring had gone and was already on its way to Rivendell, and at once he sent out many spies. He thought that he might have hindered the Riders rather than helped, and he knew of the Ranger-guard. It is noted here too that Saruman knew of the oracular dream-words and of Boromir's mission.

Well, that's that version anyway. In general here, Tolkien himself is still in the process of finding out the details of Middle-earth.

[Coffeehouse]

Interesting. It's easy to forget just much detail we're looking into and that this history is basically the product of one man's mind.