What If: The Battle of Unnumbered Tears

[Finarfin-1]

Hey,
I've always been fascinated by the period of Middle Earth history that covers the time of Beren and Luthien recovering the Silmaril, through the Union of Maedhros and the Elves/Men/Dwarves reaching the apex of their military might, ending with Morgoth shattering their hosts and beginning the downward spiral that required Earendil's desperate voyage, and the Valar going to war again.

Here's what really interests me though. At that time Morgoth did not in fact have the overt military strength to stand against the combined might of the Three Races. In spite of the rash assault that deviated from the battle plan the forces of Elves/Men/Dwarves still had the upper hand once Turgon arrived to reinforce the Haladin rearguard and the forces of Fingon, and Maedhros finally got into position.

Tolkien explicitly says that without the treacherous attack by the Easterling traitors Maedhros had taken into his confidence that the Orcs, Troll-Guard and Balrogs were already turning to flight. Not even Glaurung and the loosing of Morgoth's reserve forces were in sufficient strength *it seems*.

So I ask you. What would the likely outcome have been had the Eldar or Edain discovered the traitors allegiance to Morgoth, and dealt with them prior to the battle? More specifically: What would have changed had the combined forces of the Three Races defeated the entirety of Morgoth's force in pitched battle?

I've given it a lot of thought, and here's what I've come up with.

1) Fingon's host had was already badly damaged after the fighting withdrawal across what once was Ard-Galen. The Haladin had lost their chieftain Haldir in that withdrawal, so the men of Brethil were in all likelihood close to breaking. Turgon's bold advance saved Fingon and the remainder of the Haladin from annihilation, but at the cost of tying down his own force.

2) (Assuming the traitor-host of Easterlings had been dealt with prior) Maedhros was laboring under the disadvantage that Morgoth had detailed information on the composition/outfitting of his host, but without the traitor Ulfang's lies about an attack from Angband to delay his march he most likely would have arrived at about the same time that Turgon did.

3) Morgoth always had a first-class spy network, so I'm willing to call it a safe bet that he would have quickly become aware of the traitors' failure. All he could have done in response was commit his reserves earlier, in an attempt to overwhelm his enemies before they could get coordinated.

My conclusion is that once Morgoth committed his picked troops reserve force that the momentum would have swung his way, forcing the combined forces to give ground. Casualties would have been nasty with the river crossing being part and parcel of that withdrawal, but it would have been even worse for the Orcs, since they would have been crossing under withering elvish archers firing en masse. I believe that with the Naugrim on the flanks, ready to come in and under Glaurung when the dragons approached, and bolstering the human infantry that the river would have become a deathtrap for Morgoth's forces. This was the point that his host was beginning to break and run in canon, but under these circumstances he lacks a force in the rear to help rally the demoralized main host.

In other words, the day would have belonged to the Three Races. Given their great casualties no follow-up advance on Angband was feasible, but the big question is what would have come next. The Three Races might've been battered in their victory, but the defeat would have been the most definitive and crushing loss that Morgoth had ever suffered. Angband would have been all but empty...

So, what would have happened if the Fifth Battle of Unnumbered Tears had been a victory for the free peoples?

BTW, feel free to disagree with my interpretation of events. There's ample room for alternate theories of the Fifth Battle, absent Easterling traitors.