Turbulent Times in Old Middle Earth: 1944-2050 Third Age

[Valandil]

I have only noticed fairly recently just how many major events happened close together - approximately 1000 years before the events of "Lord of the Rings". If you check out Appendix B - from 1944 to 2050 of the Third Age, you have:

1944 - King Ondoher of Gondor and his sons die in battle - Earnil drives out Wainriders / Arvedui (son of Araphant, King of Aranarth) makes claim on Gondor's crown
1945 - Earnil (II) crowned king
1974 - Arthedain falls - over-run by forces of Witch-king from Angmar / King Arvedui drowns and northern palantiri lost
1975 - Angmar's forces destroyed by remnants of Arthedain, combined with Gondor, Lindon and Imladris
1976 - Aranarth, son of Arvedui, takes title of Chieftain of the Dunedain (maybe only then learning from Lossoth of the death of his father, Arvedui?)
1977 - Frungor (Frumgar?) leads Eothed into north (ancestors of Rohirrim - they had lived on the SW outskirts of Mirkwood since the Wainriders occupied their old lands east of Mirkwood - they now moved to the northern end of Anduin - which HAD until very recently been the eastern part of Angmar)
1979 - Hobbits choose first Thain for the Shire (forced into self-governance with the collapse of Arthedain)
1980 - Witch-king gathers Nazgul at Mordor / Balrog appears in Moria - slays Durin VI
1981 - Balrog slays Nain I - dwarves flee Moria / many Silvan Elves flee Lorien - Amroth & Nimrodel are lost (and soon after - Celeborn and Galadriel begin rule in Lorien)
1999 - Thrain I establishes new kindgom at Erebor
2000 - Nazgul besiege Minas Ithil
2002 - Nazgul take Minas Ithil (renamed Minas Morgul) and capture its palantir
2043 - King Earnil II dies - son Earnur made King of Gondor
2050 - King Earnur responds to challenge of Witch-king and goes to Minas Morgul - and is lost / The Stewards begin to rule 'in the name of the king'

Interesting if you look at how many major things happen. Three kingdoms are no more - Arthedain, Angmar, Moria. The remnants of one re-establish a new place (Erebor) - while another struggles to keep its identity (remnants of Arnor/Arthedain). The greatest kingdom of the time (Gondor) loses its king - and then loses the line which replaced him - and gives up the concept. There is also major upheaval in an important elven-realm (Lorien) of the time. The ancestors of the Rohirrim make a major migration (and we're not told exactly when Fram, son of Frumgar kills Scatha and is slain by dwarves - but prob somewhere in here). The Nazgul and the Balrog reveal themselves. Even the Shire goes from being a dependant state to an independant state.

In fact, look how much of this happens in just a seven-year span: from 1974 to 1981! Almost all - excluding what happens in Gondor. (and we thought those years were turbulent in OUR age! )

Wondering: Was Sauron gearing up for an earlier appearance? Shortly after this, in 2063, Gandalf goes to Dol Guldor - and Sauron retreats into the east. This begins the 'Watchful Peace'... although they've been around for about 1,000 years (and suspected Sauron was at Dol Goldur since about Year 1100) this is the first thing we see the Istari DO! Was this also the first time that Sauron became aware that the Istari had been sent from the West? (did he guess at that - with Gandalf's coming to Dol Guldor?) Did the Istari intentionally 'lay low' for their first 1000 years, as they learned - that they might be more effective in the years after that (which turned out to be about another 1000).

Well... hard to do much of a historical dissertation on fictitious history. But, I wonder if JRRT had anything in mind - grouping all these events close together... or if it was just more or less 'coincidental' as he mapped out his 'history' of Middle Earth.

BTW - I'm not into the RPG stuff that happens around here - but wonder if this time-frame could be an exciting time to set one. Say - 1982, when everyone is wandering around (and I was a freshman & sophpomore in college! )

[Keith K]

Originally posted by Valandil
Did the Istari intentionally 'lay low' for their first 1000 years, as they learned - that they might be more effective in the years after that (which turned out to be about another 1000).

Their "mandate" was to unite those who would stand against Sauron I believe. They were not supposed to seek power for themselves and then lead forces against him. Since Sauron had not openly declared himself I suppose the Istari had to wait until he did. Thus they "lay low" for 1000 yrs.

[Valandil]

Originally posted by Keith K
Their "mandate" was to unite those who would stand against Sauron I believe. They were not supposed to seek power for themselves and then lead forces against him. Since Sauron had not openly declared himself I suppose the Istari had to wait until he did. Thus they "lay low" for 1000 yrs.

Good point. I wonder though, if they were somewhat active behind the scenes - and were either not listened to... or the fact that they played a role isn't mentioned. For instance, did they try unsuccessfully to get Cardolan and Rhudaur to reconcile with one another... even to return to Arthedain's influence? Did they later successfully lobby Cardolan to reunite with Arthedain against Angmar and Rhudaur? Did they try to get more help from the elves of Lindon and Imladris for Arthedain against Angmar? (and did they influence them to take the field once Angmar had destroyed Arthedain?) Did they try to reconcile the warring factions in the Kin-strife? Were they unseen movers who led Arnor and Gondor to renew contact in 1940? Maybe they urged Frumgar to TAKE the Eothed north, in hopes that it would inhibit the resurgence of Angmar? (Or in hopes that someone might take out Scatha?)

All these things are hard to guess... maybe topics for fan fiction. And although I say 'they' - it's hard to imagine any of the others being as involved in these things as Gandalf. Radagast was preoccupied with the plants and animals. Saruman made a big trip into the east - and the blue wizards seem to have stayed there (I wonder sometimes if Saruman 'got rid of them' back east - if not malevolently, maybe he was at least annoyed with them and found some way to keep them occupied). Plus - Saruman may have already had designs of his own...

Still... regardless of the Istari involvement, one way or the other - I still think it's interesting that so many major things happened so close together... and so long before everything was resolved in the War of the Ring.

[Tuor of Gondolin]

An interesting observation and topic:
Some observations:The century or so noted seems to resemble some of those in recent history, say, the period of the French Revolution and the 1930s and 1940s in the U.S. I view FDR's work as quite important, first vital reforms such as Social Security, unemployment insurance, some modicum of union empowerment and then his committment to aid Britain against Hitler. And remember American economic preponderance was boosted by World War II.

Similarly, T.A. c.1940-2050 saw important geopolitical changes. Anor/Arthedain ended as a state as well as Moria. But interestingly, with less long range gains for the bad guys then the Witch King or sauron probably evaluated at the time.
1) The Dunedain didn't disappear, rather went into "biding their time" mode, Rivendell guarding the tokens of kingship and protecting the heirs while the Rangers protected a good bit of Eriador from destruction.
2) The Shire being established, with Ranger protection, in effect connected "good guy" areas from Western Eriador to Rhovannion.
3) The Gondor/elves defeat of the Witch King at Fornost assured that there would be no dominant direct threat to the peoples the Northern regions, when taken with
4) The Eotheod establishing their Northern settlement.
And, remember, perhaps the greatest plus for Sauron in this time was a stroke of good fortune, not planned by him, the Balrog driving the dwarves out of Moria.

Speculatively, how much more difficult would the Mordor's strategy in the War of the Ring have been if Moria had remained dwarvish. Recall how difficult it was for sauron's northern army to attack Erebor, one assumes Moria would have been even more difficult. (Almost reminds you of Hitler's good luck when Stalin purged the Red Army just before World War II).

And what if in the Second Age Elrond had been able to get to Eregion in order to assist Celebrimbor in a strategic retreat. After the Numenoreans and Sauron's defeat might the Hollin elves have moved back? A Celembrimbor/Moria/Lorien working alliance in the War of the Ring not only would have been an enormous obstacle for Mordor, but might also have checked saruman's ambitions.

Okay, maybe I'm getting carried away speculating, but it is rather fun--- like some of the alternate history books.
For example, I have one on World War II battles which argues that the Japanese commander at Pearl Harbor actually was probably correct in not ordering a third wave aircraft attack.
And Tolkien's detail and leaving a number of possible speculative "what ifs" and unanswered questions is part of the fascination with the legendarium.

[Valandil]

Well, Eregion was long gone... and a whole different matter. Still, that's a very good point about Moria. If the Dwarves had NEVER dug so deep as to disturb the Balrog, would Moria have still been a mighty stronghold 1000 years later. Sauron was unable to penetrate it when he made war on Middle Earth in the middle of the Second Age. Of course, if he got the One Ring, that's all a 'Moot Point' (smiley when you say that around here)... since it would give him a measure of power over the ring of Durin's line - and if not that, power enough to overwhelm Moria anyway.

Perhaps though, it was the very ring which Sauron had given to Durin's line which drove them ever deeper until they freed the Balrog... maybe even somewhat BY Sauron's design??

[Tuor of Gondolin]

Perhaps though, it was the very ring which Sauron had given to Durin's line which drove them ever deeper until they freed the Balrog... maybe even somewhat BY Sauron's design??
_________________________________-

Ooh. Very good! I never thought of that! Hmm. In the Silmarillion:
Of The Rings Of Power And The Third Age,

"They used the rings only for the getting of wealth; but wrath and an overmastering greed of gold were kindled in their hearts,
of which evil enough after came to the profit of Sauron.

[Thorin II]

Originally posted by Valandil
Wondering: Was Sauron gearing up for an earlier appearance?

Very interesting points. I don't think Sauron was necessarily trying to appear earlier, though. He was always reluctant to fight directly and tried his best to avoid fierce opponents. My guess is he did his best to help these things come to pass so his enemies would get weaker and weaker over time. My guess is that the timeline was just how he wanted it to be (more or less).

[Valandil]

OK - here's the old thread I made, and I'm making good on my threat to revive it. It was even longer ago than I remembered - I had just been at Entmoot a few months.

So I'll raise this question again. Was Sauron inclined to make a push forward and declare himself openly - almost a thousand years before he actually did - until checked by Gandalf's visit to Dol Guldur? As there was so much turmoil at once, is this a reasonable conclusion?