Ukrainian Election

[Telcontar_Dunedain]

This election has been allegedlly rigged. What are everyones views and hopes on this?
Here is the latest report from the BBC.

[Nurvingiel]

My hope is that Ukraine can have a fair election.

One good thing is that Ukranians seem to know what's going on, and are doing something about it. Despite its being rigged (looking at the BBC article, it really does look like it was rigged), Yushchenko (the opposition leader) got a lot of support.

Maybe they will be able to have a neutral country moderate this election, and someone who is elected fairly is more likely to not rig the next election. Of course, if Yanukovych (current leader) wins fairly, he still might rig the next election. I doubt he actually would win fairly though - he got a lot of bad PR over this and the alleged poisonning of Yushchenko.

[jerseydevil]

Jonathan and I have been discussing this for a couple of days - well since the election. Putin seems to want to regain the Soviet Union days - he actually went out campaigning. That would be like Blair coming out here and campaigning for Bush or Chirac for Kerry - I would be pissed in either case. Then of course is all the cheating - having prisoners vote for the russian supported person in exchange for reduced sentences and so forth.

They're talking about possibly having new elections - I wonder if they do have new elections how that would come out. I think with the demonstrations and so forth - a lot more people would come out for the western supported person.

This makes the US diplomacy with Russia even more difficult. On one had trying to be an ally with Russia - and on the other being against Russia in so many respects anymore. Putin is taking Russia backward - not forward and he's trying to get Ukraine to follow him.

[Insidious Rex]

Well you cant really blame Putin for backing the russian leaning candidate. Losing influence in the Ukraine would be a big blow for Russia. The other guy wants to join NATO and make oil ties to the south that exclude Russia and all this. But yeah hes definitely in the wrong.

Essentially the place is ungovernable now so sooner or later something will have to give. The hope is that the oligarcs and mafia bosses who helped rig the first election will realize they will be worse off as a pariah state because they wont be allowed to do business with the west (and their wives wont be allowed to jet to Paris and Milan to shop anymore) so theyll cut their loses and pull their support for the first guy and attempt to swing some kind of deal that will at least allow them to benefit some.

[Janny]

It was noted on a BBC comedy show that it was like something out of Lelsie Neilsson that both candidates should have the first name and surname initial Victor Y. and that matters where probably only confused by the fact both declared that.
And I'm trying to turn this into a serious point... and I can't.

[Hasty Ent]

I was born in the US, but my parents were Ukrainian immigrants and I consider myself first and foremost Ukrainian. I have travelled to Ukraine, and am involved with the Ukrainian diaspora in my community. I have been following this election and campaign for months now with increasing alarm. I have no trouble believing the election was rigged. My friends in Ukraine (a few of them are journalists) have been telling me for YEARS about the corruption and media manipulation that has become standard practice. Hryhoriy Honhadze was murdered on Kuchma's orders, for crying out loud.

What I fear most, however, is not whether Yanukovich or Yushchenko wins. I do support Yushchenko and feel he is the best candidate. However, he is not without his own checkered past. He, like EVERY political creature in Ukraine, has been linked to organized crime. No, my great fear is that the cultural divisions which have existed in Ukraine for centuries will come to a head and lead to partition.

Ukraine is roughly the size of France, and has a population of roughly 52 million (in 1992, but I'm pretty sure it's been shrinking). 25% of this population considers themselves to be Russian and would be happy to be reunited with Russia. They mostly reside in the southeast, which is the industrial powerhouse of Ukraine. 40% of Ukraine's foreign trade is with Russia. Is it any wonder those people have NO interest in closer ties with Europe? Ukraine's history shows centuries of occupation -- by Russia in the East, by various European countries in the West (Poland, Austria, Lithuania). The cultural divides are strong and I don't see how they can be bridged.

Not sure how coherent any of that was... but my emotions have been riding high for the past week. Exploding with pride at the 200,000 people who have braved subzero temperatures and snow to camp outside in protest, and shaking with fear at what the future might hold for Ukraine.

[BeardofPants]

I've been following the elections, and subsequent protests with alarm as well, Natalie.

[Hasty Ent]

Originally Posted by BeardofPants

I've been following the elections, and subsequent protests with alarm as well, Natalie.

yep, so many possible scenarios and none of them good....

but based on the recent votes in the Ukrainian Parliament (no-confidence in the Central Electoral Commission and the non-binding resolution declaring the run-off election invalid), and Ukraine's Supreme Court refusal to publish the results, it would appear the Yushchenko campaign has gained some momentum

not much though... the Parliament votes were 255 out of 429 for the resolution... it's clear that the country is divided and civil war is a distinct possibility, especially with the southeast already declaring the desire for autonomy should Yushchenko become President

I'm hoping that's not the case, and am trying my hardest not to be alarmist....

also trying to stop checking the news on this every couple of hours...it's bordering on obsessive compulsive...

[Draken]

Angry people in Eastern Europe waving flags at each other in snowy streets - it's just like the 20th Century all over again!

[Elfhelm]

I am hoping the Ukranians can show the rest of the world how to solve this sort of thing peacefully and fairly at the same time. I am very moved that the people want to protect their democracy. And I'm a little jealous.

[Hasty Ent]

Originally Posted by Elfhelm

I am hoping the Ukranians can show the rest of the world how to solve this sort of thing peacefully and fairly at the same time. I am very moved that the people want to protect their democracy. And I'm a little jealous.

I'm jealous too. Sometimes it seems people in the States are only willing to spend hours outside in freezing cold for the day after Thanksgiving sales.

[Hasty Ent]

looks like good news so far:

Ukraine to launch political reform after multilateral talks

KYIV. Dec 1 (Interfax-Ukraine) - Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma, Viktor Yanukovych, Viktor Yushchenko, and international mediators, during talks on Wednesday, reached an agreement to change the presidential election law, draft a law on a political reform, and form a new Cabinet on these principles.

Everyone involved in the talks signed the document that sealed the agreement, Kuchma told a news conference in Kyiv.

It was also decided that opposition supporters would immediately stop blockading government buildings.

[Elfhelm]

Originally Posted by Hasty Ent

looks like good news so far:

Wow! It would be nice to have guessed right.

[Snowdog]

Once they figure out how to do it there in the Ukraine, then we can use their method and maybe we will get a governer here in Washington state.

[jerseydevil]

Originally Posted by Snowdog

Once they figure out how to do it there in the Ukraine, then we can use their method and maybe we will get a governer here in Washington state.

There isn't a problem in Washington state other than the fact that there is only a difference of 42 votes between the Repulbican (who is winning) and the democrat. I believe this is AFTER they have been recounted and the democrats want them counted again.

[Elfhelm]

The Ukrainians will re-vote on December 26th. This is fantastic news. But the real issue is transparency. Whether in the Ukraine or the US, the tabulation of results must not be done in secret, and there must be evidence to support the result. How will the Ukrainians guarantee transparency? How will the US guarantee it? Using exit polls as evidence doesn't hold water in the US, apparently, but it does in the Ukraine. That's good, but it's not enough. These problems can be dealt with on a procedural level and they will go away. Every vote should be counted, and every official should be subject to oversight. It's called democracy.

[jerseydevil]

Originally Posted by Elfhelm

The Ukrainians will re-vote on December 26th. This is fantastic news. But the real issue is transparency. Whether in the Ukraine or the US, the tabulation of results must not be done in secret, and there must be evidence to support the result. How will the Ukrainians guarantee transparency? How will the US guarantee it? Using exit polls as evidence doesn't hold water in the US, apparently, but it does in the Ukraine. That's good, but it's not enough. These problems can be dealt with on a procedural level and they will go away. Every vote should be counted, and every official should be subject to oversight. It's called democracy.

Why would exit polls matter? They don't mean anything and they shoudl give NO indication of what direction an election is going in at all. The are not scientific. They are people standing outside the polling booths asking how people voted - I had already determined that if I had seen anyone - I was going to refuse to answer - as I know many others were. There is no way to know if you are getting a scientific sample of people. if only democrats choose to respond - which I believe is what happened in the US with the exit polls - then you will only get the democrats coming out ahead in the exit polls.

Also - we do have transparent recounting of the damn elections - or did you not see the transparency and the media coverage of them ACTUALLY doing the counting. Also- after the 2000 election the media set up a non-partisan group to recount the votes - both ways - Bush won. I have a feeling you just want to bitch and you still can't accept that Bush won a second term. I suggest you move on - and worry about the next election. There is no evidence of purposeful fraud in this election and I find it terrible that you have the nerve to compare the US election to the Ukrainian one. NO ELECTION is ever perfect - nor can they be. You can NOT expect anything to be perfect.

[Hasty Ent]

Originally Posted by Elfhelm

The Ukrainians will re-vote on December 26th. This is fantastic news. But the real issue is transparency. Whether in the Ukraine or the US, the tabulation of results must not be done in secret, and there must be evidence to support the result. How will the Ukrainians guarantee transparency? How will the US guarantee it? Using exit polls as evidence doesn't hold water in the US, apparently, but it does in the Ukraine. That's good, but it's not enough. These problems can be dealt with on a procedural level and they will go away. Every vote should be counted, and every official should be subject to oversight. It's called democracy.

Yushchenko has said that the re-run could take place as soon as the 19th. I agree, this is wonderful news. Kuchma and his camp had been hoping for an entirely new election, with entirely new candidates. This would have taken another 3 months, and could very well have led to economic collapse. The sooner the poll takes place the better.

Transparency is a serious issue, and one that needs to be addressed. Hopefully the recent events have brought so much worldwide attention that there won't be any shortage of international observers. I don't know how well they'll be able monitor every polling place, but I hope they make a sincere effort.

[Elfhelm]

Originally Posted by jerseydevil

Why would exit polls matter? They don't mean anything ...
I have a feeling you just want to bitch and you still can't accept that Bush won a second term. I suggest you move on ...

The subject is Ukraine?

But for the record, the only people who say exit polls don't matter are people whose candidates are declared the winner when the exit polls disagree. So, I think I'll just consider the source.

Again, I am really happy for the Ukrainians and I hope they can hold their officials accountable. It sure isn't easy!

HE, the 19th? That would be awesome. They won't have to vote the day after Christmas.

[Hasty Ent]

They would be voting BEFORE Christmas, either way, since most of them celebrate it in January.... that is, most of the Uniate and all of the Orthodox (I believe) follow the Julian calendar, not the Gregorian.

The queston now remains what about the SE? They have already voted to hold referendums on autonomy, but when? And what then? Will they be content with greater regional autonomy or will they be going for full-fledged secession? I hope it's the former, not the latter.