The Five Deaths of Man

[Grey_Wolf]

I saw a program on tv about the means by which Man could cause its demise to come about - they listed 10 - but on the net I found this list of just five. A discussion as to cause and effect of this subject might prove to be of interest.

Man-made Catastrophes

Nuclear Catastrophe

Nuclear power could result in three kinds of catastrophe: radioactive pollution, limited nuclear bombing, and general nuclear war. Accidental or deliberate radioactive pollution could kill tens or hundreds of thousands, but is quite unlikely to happen. Regional nuclear conflict in the Middle East or the Indian subcontinent could kill several million. Nuclear terrorism against Washington D.C. or New York City could kill more than a million and set back human progress by up to a decade. General nuclear war would kill hundreds of millions and could trigger a nuclear winter that might starve hundreds of millions more. While such a worst case would set back human progress by one or two centuries, existing nuclear arsenals could neither extinct humanity nor end human civilization.

Cultural Decline

Some humans fear that vice, crime, and corruption indicate ongoing social decline or impending collapse. Other humans fear that problems of class division, pollution, education, and infrastructure indicate economic decline or impending collapse. These fears are perennial and unfounded. Past examples of the drastic decline or collapse of a culture or civilization have almost always been due to environmental change, or infection or invasion by outside humans. But after the advent of continental steam locomotion in the mid-1800s, no society remains unexposed to the infections of the others. Similarly, all societies have been made part of a single global human civilization which is not subject to invasion by outside humans. Environmental change indeed poses a set of challenges, but they seem to represent constraints on growth rather than seeds of collapse.

Cultural stagnation is another possible (but milder) kind of potential catastrophe. As in Ming China, Middle Ages Europe, or the Soviet Bloc, stagnation can result if a static ideology takes hold and suppresses dissent. Such a development seems unlikely, given the intellectual freedom and communication technology of the modern world. Ideologies with totalitarian potential include fideist religions, communism, and ecological primitivism.

Bioterrorism

Could a pathogen be genetically designed to be virulent enough to extinct humanity?A pathogen would have to be designed to spread easily from person to person, persist in the environment, resist antibiotics and immune responses, and cause almost 100% mortality. Designing for long latency (e.g. months) might be necessary to ensure wide spread, but no length may be enough to infect every last human.

Robot Aggression

Some humans fear that the combination of robotics and artificial intelligence will in effect create a new dominant species that will not tolerate human control or even resource competition. These fears are misplaced. Artificial intelligence will be developed gradually by about 2200, and will not evolve runaway super-intelligence. Even when AI is integrated with artifactual life by the early 2200s, the time and energy constraints on artifactual persons will render them no more capable of global domination than any particular variety of humans (i.e. natural persons). Similarly, humanity's first Von Neumann probes will be incapable of overwhelming Earth's defenses even if they tried. To be truly dangerous, VN probes would have to be of a species with both true intelligence and a significant military advantage over humanity. Such a species would be unlikely to engage in alien aggression.

Nanoplague

Self-replicating nanotechnology could in theory become a cancer to the Earth's biosphere, replacing all ribonucleic life with nanotech life. The primary limit on the expansion of such nanotech life would, as for all life, be the availability of usable energy and material. Since any organic material would presumably be usable, the primary limit on how nanocancer could consume organic life would be the availability of usable energy. Fossil fuels are not sufficiently omnipresent, and fusion is not sufficiently portable, so nanocancer would, like ribonucleic microorganisms, have to feed on sunlight or organic tissues. Ribonucleic photosynthesis captures a maximum of about 10% of incident solar energy, while nanocancer should be able to capture at least 50%. The only way to stop nanocancer would be to cut off its access to energy and material or interfere with its mechanisms for using them.

[Insidious Rex]

I thought Skynet was supposed to have become self aware by 1997 and launch all the nuclear missiles and then hunt down the rest of us with HK's and Terminators. Seems a bit overdue...

But speaking of overdue, the real threat are not robots but SUPER VOLCANOES! Especially the time bomb ticking under Yellowstone Park thats overdue for an eruption. And this is no simple volcano... Oh no. Underneath pristine Yellowstone lies an ocean of magma expanding upward like a balloon every single day and working harder and harder to contain thousands of tons of volatile dissolved gasses that really want to violently leave solution in the direction of the surface of the earth. If that happened trillions of tons of molten rock would quickly follow wiping out large parts of Idaho and western Montana, collapsing whole mountain ranges and recreating the geography of the north west in hours. The monster would also shoot enough hot ash to cover the entire US with a half inch of lung killing dust. But most of the ash would land in the heartland of the midwest which happens to be the bread basket to the entire world leading to mass starvation and the deaths of tens of millions.

Clocks a tickin...

Enjoy your day.

[Earniel]

Well, I have my doubts whether all that is actually factual (Deadly nuclear accidents quite unlikely to happen? okay then...) but I'm somewhat clueless as the the goal of this thread. So what's this all about? Determining the ways how humanity can sign its own death certificate? I'm sure we can do better than five.

[Valandil]

I tend to think smaller-scale.

We'll do well to avoid the "Big Three":
* Cancer
* Heart Disease
* Diabetes

We can help ourselves by eating right, getting enough exercise, keeping our stress level low and our weight down, enjoying fresh air and the love of friends and family.

Not that I DO enough of those things, or do them sufficiently myself. But they go a long way to increasing our chances of living longer.

Then - if one of those Cataclysmic Events happens - there's not a lot we can do about it anyway, so why waste our lives worrying?

Originally Posted by Insidious Rex

:
:
But speaking of overdue, the real threat are not robots but SUPER VOLCANOES! Especially the time bomb ticking under Yellowstone Park thats overdue for an eruption. And this is no simple volcano... Oh no. Underneath pristine Yellowstone lies an ocean of magma expanding upward like a balloon every single day and working harder and harder to contain thousands of tons of volatile dissolved gasses that really want to violently leave solution in the direction of the surface of the earth. If that happened trillions of tons of molten rock would quickly follow wiping out large parts of Idaho and western Montana, collapsing whole mountain ranges and recreating the geography of the north west in hours. The monster would also shoot enough hot ash to cover the entire US with a half inch of lung killing dust. But most of the ash would land in the heartland of the midwest which happens to be the bread basket to the entire world leading to mass starvation and the deaths of tens of millions.

Clocks a tickin...

Enjoy your day.

Yes - I've heard about that. Pretty mind-boggling.

It's a good thing to know Jesus!

Oh - GW - you also left out 'Meteor Strike'

[Alcuin]

You also left out gamma ray bursts (GRBs). WR 104 is pointed right at us: if it’s gone supernova, we’re literally toast.

Astronomers have determined that Betelgeuse has become unstable. Betelgeuse is the eighth-brightest star in the night sky: it’s the right shoulder (on our left, the one with the raised arm) of the constellation Orion. It could go supernova at any time, and when it does, some astronomers believe it will be almost as bright as the sun for many days; even those who disagree say that it will be as bright as “a crescent moon, ... would definitely be visible in full daylight, and it would cast shadows”.

One of my friends is the son of a nuclear physicist. His dad went to a solar physics seminar one evening at which a the speaker said, “And in five billion years the sun will swell to a red giant and incinerate the earth.” A well-dressed woman in the front row sprang to her feet and exclaimed in sheer panic, “Five million years!?” “No, no, madam, five billion years.” “Oh, oh,” mumbled the woman, as she retook her seat, much comforted. My friend says his dad thought to himself, Now what difference does it make to that woman whether it’s five billion or five million or five thousand years? She’ll be long dead. Five million years ago, there were no humans. Five billion years ago, there was no sun, there was no earth. Or so we believe today.

Live your life as if you may be held to account for what you do: for so you may be. Treat others as you want to be treated. Do what is right:

[Éomer asked,] “How shall a man judge what to do in such times?”

“As he ever has judged,” said Aragorn. “Good and ill have not changed since yesteryear; nor are they one thing among Elves and Dwarves and another among Men. It is a man's part to discern them, as much in the Golden Wood as in his own house.”

We are surrounded by dangers and hazards!

[Gimli said,] “But you speak of [Treebeard] as if he was a friend. I thought Fangorn was dangerous.”

“Dangerous!” cried Gandalf. “And so am I, very dangerous: more dangerous than anything you will ever meet, unless you are brought alive before the seat of the Dark Lord. And Aragorn is dangerous, and Legolas is dangerous. You are beset with dangers, Gimli son of Glóin; for you are dangerous yourself, in your own fashion. …”

[The Telcontarion]

You forgot to mention gods wrath!!!

[Valandil]

Oh - I guess the Meteor, and the Gamma Radiation don't apply (nor does the Wrath of God). GW mentions 'man-made catastrophes' at the start. I'll still include my: cancer, heart disease and diabetes though.

[GrayMouser]

"The Five Deaths of Man"

Does that mean Woman will still be around to clean up the mess?

[GrayMouser]

Originally Posted by Valandil

Oh - I guess the Meteor, and the Gamma Radiation don't apply (nor does the Wrath of God). GW mentions 'man-made catastrophes' at the start. I'll still include my: cancer, heart disease and diabetes though.

None of which are able to cause total annihilation of humanity, though- unless some scientist at Frito-Lays is developing the ultimate addictive Chocolate-dipped Suger-coated Deep-fried Cheez'n'Bacon Doughnut.

[GrayMouser]

I'd put general nuclear war at the top of the list, though the arsenals have come down a long way from the height of the Cold War.

I'd say it depends on how long nuclear winter lasts, though we humans have proven to be resilient little critters.

[Grey_Wolf]

The term Man for Mankind is perhaps a bit overly simplifying. But the words Woman and Female have unfortunately been invented by MEN. The swedish word Kvinna I think are among the few words in the world that actually cannot be misinterpreted.

But as for the question if Kvinnliga part of the species will be around when the kind has gone the way of the dodo, I think that might just be a possibility since Kvinnor usually have a lot more sense than Men.

[Earniel]

Originally Posted by GrayMouser

Does that mean Woman will still be around to clean up the mess?

As if we couldn't mop you up already if we wanted to. But I suppose Men have their uses to keep them around. Opening jars, walking the dog, moving furniture...

Originally Posted by Alcuin

Astronomers have determined that Betelgeuse has become unstable.

It would be an awesome sight, I'm sure! A star bright enough to light up the night sky... I'm just a tiny bit disappointed it won't likely happen in our lifetime.

Originally Posted by Grey_Wolf

The term Man for Mankind is perhaps a bit overly simplifying. But the words Woman and Female have unfortunately been invented by MEN.

Depending on languages I'm sure. I'd like to see anyone try and find a male root in the Dutch word for woman or female. That said, I'm not at all sorry that the Dutch word for mankind isn't as genderspecific. 'Mensheid' means 'human kind' which seems more appropriate. Although I do dislike the Belgian journalists constantly saying 'crimes against humanoid-kind'. Dunno where they got that one from... But it's humanity. Come back when we do encounter humanoid aliens or something, but for now the laws are about crimes against humanity. (I'll keep the next rant for the Language thread, I promise. )

Back on topic, there are a big number of things that can wipe humanity away, but from the man-made ones, us splitting the atom and what we've done with it since is a good contender. Even remote Tchernobyl caused effects felt across Europe. They are already out of funding to renew the sarcophagus around the reactor, which shows to me the world isn't very careful with radioactive leftovers from previous times. And radioactivity can and just might outlast us. I think with dread of all those containers with radioactive waste they dumped in the sea. Out of sight is out of mind, riiiight. Yes, I'm pretty sure radioactivity is still going to bite us in the ass big time in the future.

[The Gaffer]

I like "Jock Tamsin's Bairns" myself.

A geomagnetic reversal, perhaps caused by a coronal mass ejection, would be a hoot.

On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.

[Rían]

Originally Posted by GrayMouser

"The Five Deaths of Man"

Does that mean Woman will still be around to clean up the mess?

[Alcuin]

Man-made disasters? Does that include roasting corn (that’s maize to you Brits – your corn is our “wheat” here in the Colonies) to make booze (ethanol) to burn in your car instead of gas leaving a few million poor people to starve because they can’t afford corn any more?

[GrayMouser]

Yeah,corn-based ethanol is a really bad idea- but one that will continue to swallow up billions of wasted dollars in subsidies as long as the Iowa caucuses are the first hurdle in the presidential primaries and the United States Senate is allocated by acreage rather than population.

[GrayMouser]

Also brings to mind Frederic Brown's famous claim to the shortest science fiction story ever, "Knock":

"The last man on earth sat alone in a room. There was a knock on the door...."

[GrayMouser]

Speaking of Woman, as Eowyn put it:

"All your words are but to say: you are a woman, and your part is in the house. But when the men have died in battle and honour, you have leave to be burned in the house, for the men will need it no more. "