Saruman'a actions in summer 3018

[Gordis]

What has really happened between the three Istari (Saruman, Radagast and Gandalf) in summer 3018?
Let us look at Saruman's actions and motives closer.

Gandalf had been fond of hobbits ever since the Long winter (2758-60), long before Bilbo has found the Ring. He didn't hide his interest from Saruman and

Seeing then that Gandalf thought the Shire worth visiting, Saruman himself visited it, but disguised and in the utmost secrecy, until he had explored and noted all its ways and lands, and thought then he had learned all that there was to know of it. And even when it seemed to him no longer wise nor profitable to go thither, he still had spies and servants that went in or kept an eye upon its borders. For he was still suspicious. He was himself so far fallen that he believed all others of the Council had each their deep and far-reaching policies for their own enhancement, to which all that they did must in some way refer. "Concerning Gandalf, Saruman and the Shire" UT

So, in summer 3018 the One Ring is hidden in the Shire. Saruman doesn't know it is there, but is very much aware of Gandalf's interest in this land.
Then Saruman suddenly learns that the nazgul - all nine - have crossed the Anduin and are searching for "the Shire". How did he learn it? Most likely from Radagast - because how otherwise the Brown Wizard, who always stayed as far as possible from politics, got involved in this story? Radagast must have learned from his birds and beasts that his neighbours, the two nazgul of Dol Guldur, set forth, crossed the river, met the other seven and rode north together, asking questions. Radagast did what was his duty: he immediately went to inform Saruman - the head of his order.

Here Saruman most likely put all the loose ends together: Gandalf is interested in the Shire and goes there a lot, the nazgul try to find the Shire, and there is hardly any other errand than the search for the One Ring that would make Sauron send all the Nine to wander across western lands. The last bit can be proven by Saruman's words to the Morgul-Lord: "It is not a land that you look for," he said. "I know what you seek, though you do not name it."- UT)
So, finally, before midsummer 3018, Saruman understands that the One is in the Shire, maybe in Gandalf's direct keeping, maybe in the keeping of one of the hobbits under Gandalf's supervision.
Saruman's next move is to invite Gandalf to Orthanc, using the unsuspecting Radagast. Why? Most likely Saruman hopes that Gandalf will come bringing the Ring with him. That's why he orders Radagast to tell Gandalf the news about the nazgul. Would the Grey wizard leave the Ring unprotected?
But that was not what happened. Gandalf came alone without the Ring. And here Saruman's actions do not make much sense, IMO. He took Gandalf out of the picture, imprisoning him in Orthanc. But he did nothing about the Ring. Why didn't he ride like the wind to the Shire himself, to get there before the nazgul?

And if I knew where this thing was hid, I should not be here, but long gone before you to take it.

- says Saruman to the nazgul in UT. But he lied. He DID know! Well, maybe he didn't know the name of "Baggins" (likely the nazgul only asked about "the Shire" at first, and started asking about "Baggins" only beyond the Sarn Ford), but still, he could have found Bag End easily - as it was the place that his colleague Gandalf was known to visit. A couple of questions, a small amount of charm and persuasion and he would be led to Frodo. The rangers at the border would have let him pass - wasn't he the head of the White Council? Frodo would have had no suspicions of him - didn't Gandalf speak highly of Saruman? He could have taken the Ring there and then, or carried Frodo to Orthanc - if he had daring enough.
But it seems Saruman hadn't got enough guts for it. He did the silliest thing - removed Gandalf and left the Ring completely unprotected for the nazgul to take. Or, considering that Gandalf had means to transmit the news of danger to the Ringbearer, prior to going to Orthanc, he left the Ringbearer enough time to make his way to Rivendell, where the Ring would be beyond Saruman's grasp.
What was it? Miscalculation? Cowardice?
What do you think?

[The Dread Pirate Roberts]

Perhaps Pippin, (or was it Merry?) was right in saying that Saruman didn't have a lot of guts for straightforward confrontation, preferring to use his pawns rather than risk himself (though what risk the Shire held for him seems minimal).

Or perhaps he was preoccupied with his war on Rohan.

You make an excellent point, Gordis. He could have kept Gandalf by his side and never even let on he was a traitor. "Gandalf, the Nazgul are heading for the Shire. They think the Ring is there. If you know anything about it, we must go there now, together, and keep it from the enemy!" Or some such playing along.

He fell due to his pride, obviously, but it still made little sense when you think about it as you've laid out.

[Jon S.]

Perhaps it's an internal-to-the-story author's error (akin to why Elrond's Council did not even consider, even if they would have ultimately rejected the idea, having the Eagles fly the Ring to Mt. Doom and drop it in)?

[Varnafindë]

Originally Posted by Jon S.

Perhaps it's an internal-to-the-story author's error (akin to why Elrond's Council did not even consider, even if they would have ultimately rejected the idea, having the Eagles fly the Ring to Mt. Doom and drop it in)?

It quite possibly is - and it is fun to try to find what the reason would have been if it had been intentional.

Saruman keeping Gandalf out of things would make sense if he was doing some Ring hunting himself. He had been searching for it in the River Anduin for long enough ...

[Gordis]

Yet the only thing Saruman did after capturing Gandalf was to send some spies to the Shire - one of them was the famous squint-eyed Southerner.

Some while ago one of Saruman's most trusted servants (yet a ruffianly fellow, an outlaw driven from Dunland, where many said that he had Orc-blood) had returned from the borders of the Shire, where he had been negotiating for the purpose of "leaf" and other supplies. Saruman was beginning to store Isengard against war. This man was now on his way back to continue the business, and to arrange for the transport of many goods before autumn failed. He had orders also to get into the Shire, if possible, and learn if there had been any departures of persons well-known recently. He was well supplied with maps, lists of names, and notes concerning the Shire.-UT

But did Saruman really think he had all the time in the world? The Southerner was only on his way to the Shire when he was overtaken by the nazgul.

Had Saruman gone to the Shire straight away, he would have had two months to search for the Ring and to bring it to Orthanc.

[Coffeehouse]

I'm being purely speculative here, but could it be possible that Sarumann thought that the Nine would somehow not find their way to Frodo's house?

But that of course does not quite add up with what happened in Bree. Did not the Southerner assist the Nine? Pointing out the room where Frodo, Sam, Pippin and Merry lived for example.

Myself, I can't square Sarumann's actions and words relating to the hunt for the Ring. Is there something we're missing or is it a glaring inconsistency?

[Gordis]

Originally Posted by Coffeehouse

I'm being purely speculative here, but could it be possible that Sarumann thought that the Nine would somehow not find their way to Frodo's house?

That would make Saruman very stupid - or did he have so much ESTEL?

But that of course does not quite add up with what happened in Bree. Did not the Southerner assist the Nine? Pointing out the room where Frodo, Sam, Pippin and Merry lived for example.

The Southerner got caught by the Nazgul on their way to the Shire (see UT). He surrendered his maps and lists of names - which helped the ringwraiths a lot to find Bag End. The Witch-King put a spell on Saruman's spy "the Shadow of Fear", changing his loyalties. In Bree he served only Mordor.

Is there something we're missing or is it a glaring inconsistency?

Let us try to find what we may be missing, before we declare it a glaring inconsistency.

[Attalus]

Originally Posted by Jon S.

Perhaps it's an internal-to-the-story author's error (akin to why Elrond's Council did not even consider, even if they would have ultimately rejected the idea, having the Eagles fly the Ring to Mt. Doom and drop it in)?

*sigh* The Eagles would have been spotted and the whole "destroy the Ring" gambit would have failed. As I have repeatedly posted, one troop of Uruks in the Sammath Naur would have been Middle-earth's undoing.

[The Dread Pirate Roberts]

Maybe PJ was right and Saruman really was serving Mordor, not himself?

[Zilbanne]

Possibly Saruman couldn't act quite independently as we all think. He seems to be both hiding some of his actions from Sauron and is also controlled by Sauron at least to some degree, having to speak to the dark lord, through the seeing stone.
Remember when Sauron tells Pippin to just say to Saruman that "this " (the ring) isn't for him. ?

He couldn't risk leaving Orthanc himself without Sauron wanting to find out why.

[Coffeehouse]

One reason may be that Sarumann knew the Rangers were keeping an eye out on the area. Which leads to me a question which is sort of off-topic for this thread; where were all these Rangers in the miles between the Shire and Rivendell? Weren't there supposed to be more than Strider roaming the area? They certainly must have done a poor job of it by the looks of it.

In any case, the Red Book of Westmarch is not an all-telling account of what happened that summer and fall so there may be plans by Sarumann that failed but never saw the light of day from the POV of the 'good side'.

[Earniel]

Originally Posted by Coffeehouse

One reason may be that Sarumann knew the Rangers were keeping an eye out on the area. Which leads to me a question which is sort of off-topic for this thread; where were all these Rangers in the miles between the Shire and Rivendell? Weren't there supposed to be more than Strider roaming the area? They certainly must have done a poor job of it by the looks of it.

I believe it was Gandalf who mentioned to the Hobbits something of the Rangers having kept the Shire safe without the Hobbits knowing they were there, so it is likely the rangers did act, but without us knowing what. They attempted to keep out the nazgul too but they weren't up to that. Clearly they were spread rather thin, because after Halbarad and his men went to join Aragorn, the watch seemed to have ceased.

And if Saruman knew of them, it might be because they had at times hindered his plans or spies.

[Gordis]

I still don't think the Rangers at Sarn Ford would have hindered the head of the White Council in any way. Note also that the Dunlending, Saruman's spy, had been to the Shire itself and was able to compile the lists of names and maps. The Rangers let him in, despite his orcish looks - and I think it was because he could proove that he was a dealer from Isengard coming on trade business. It was Saruman's authority that let him through.

The Rangers were suspicious, but did not actually refuse entry to the servants of Saruman – for Gandalf was not at liberty to warn them, and when he had gone off to Isengard Saruman was still recognised as an ally. -UT

But I think Galin has found the main answer.

[The Dunlending] had orders also to get into the Shire if possible and learn if there had been any departures of persons well-known recently. He was well supplied with maps, lists of names, and notes concerning the Shire.-UT

Note: the spy had to inquire about persons recently departed from the Shire. Thus Saruman seems to be sure that Gandalf, before coming to Orthanc, DID warn the Ringbearer of the danger. He expected the ringbearer would fly straight away.

But where to? Here Saruman likely considered 2 possibilities:

1. On one hand, if Gandalf really wanted the Ring for himself, he wouldn't send the ringbearer to Rivendell, instead he would find a safe place outside of the Shire for the hobbit to hide. To trace the hobbit to this place would then require time and some cooperation from the hobbit's relatives or friends in the Shire. In this task Saruman mannish spies (or better even hobbit spies) would have a lot of advantages over the nazgul. The latter didn't really inspire trust in anyone and would likely be unable to get the necessary information from the hobbits.
2. On the other hand, indeed Saruman may have pondered the meaning of the dream-words sent to Boromir and Faramir that Galin has quoted.

[Saruman] believed also (knowing of the oracular dream-words and of Boromir's mission) that the Ring had gone and was already on the way on Rivendell.-UT The Hunt for the Ring version C

Indeed, the oracular words strongly implied that the Ring would come to Rivendell:
Seek for the Sword that was broken:
In Imladris it dwells;
There shall be counsels taken
Stronger than Morgul-spells.
There shall be shown a token
That Doom is near at hand,
For Isildur's Bane shall waken,
And the Halfling forth shall stand.
It Saruman believed the authority who sent the dream (and it had to be either the Valar or Eru), then it was simply useless to try to prevent the Ring from coming to Rivendell. It was preordained and trying to hinder it would only compromise Saruman both before the White Council and before Sauron.

In both cases it was wiser to stay in Isengard, and keep Sauron appeased over the Palantir.

[Jon S.]

Saruman's actions are really not even worth further thought compared to Sauron's. At the point in time where he knew Frodo had the Ring, had he *literally* bent all his will and resources towards it, it would have been a short story instead of a novel. That is truly inexplicable to me.

[Galin]

In The Hunt for the Ring text C (Christopher Tolkien is inclined to think this version is the latest in order of composition) the Riders arrive at Orthanc the same day Gandalf escapes (see note 15 and compare Appendix B).

Saruman is then said to have believed that the Ring had gone and was already on its way to Rivendell, and at once he sent out many spies. He thought that he might have hindered the Riders rather than helped, and he knew of the Ranger-guard. It is noted here too that Saruman knew of the oracular dream-words and of Boromir's mission.

Well, that's that version anyway. In general here, Tolkien himself is still in the process of finding out the details of Middle-earth.

[Coffeehouse]

Interesting. It's easy to forget just much detail we're looking into and that this history is basically the product of one man's mind.

[The Dread Pirate Roberts]

Originally Posted by Jon S.

Saruman's actions are really not even worth further thought compared to Sauron's. At the point in time where he knew Frodo had the Ring, had he *literally* bent all his will and resources towards it, it would have been a short story instead of a novel. That is truly inexplicable to me.

Could you clarify this position? Just when do you think Sauron knew Frodo had the Ring? Even if the washed-out Nazgul reported to him that Frodo had the Ring at the ford, there was no reason for Sauron to think the Elves, the Rangers, and Gandalf would let him hang on to it.

I don't think Sauron knew Frodo had the Ring until he put it on and claimed it at Mount Doom.

[Attalus]

Originally Posted by Jon S.

Saruman's actions are really not even worth further thought compared to Sauron's. At the point in time where he knew Frodo had the Ring, had he *literally* bent all his will and resources towards it, it would have been a short story instead of a novel. That is truly inexplicable to me.

I don't think that until the climax in the Sammath Naur, Sauron knew that Frodo bore the Ring. Of course, after Gollum ratted, he knew that it was held by "Baggins," but he did not even know where the Shire lay, much less what or where a Baggins was. At another point, we are told that he had "long known it was abroad, borne by a Hobbit." But, after the fal of Saruman and Aragorn's taunting him through the Stone, he seems to have been convinced that it had been taken to Minas Tirith, hence his over-soon assault on it.

[Alcuin]

Once Gandalf escaped, Saruman’s position was doubly dangerous: the Nazgûl knew or suspected that he had betrayed Sauron, a bit of information that would not be long in reaching their master. Gandalf knew that Saruman had betrayed his sacred trust, his duty, and his Order. Had Saruman left Orthanc, he would have been exposed, weaker outside his fortress, and liable to capture himself by the Elves once Gandalf reported his imprisonment.

Tolkien points out (in Letters, if I recall aright) that had one of the Wise obtained the Ring, he would have followed the policies pursued by Sauron in order to fight Sauron, building up his power and using proxies and lieutenants to wage war against Mordor. Saruman was already in that mindset, having been corrupted by lust for the Ring because he coveted it. (Hence the commandment against coveting.)