Book V; ch IX and X. The Last Debate and The Black Gate Opens

[Gordis]

I have just re-read the thread and I think it strange that we haven't discussed Sauron's terms. For me they are most puzzling.

1. Why would Sauron decide to propose terms at all - if he hoped to crush the Gondorians like fleas? Was he so shaken by the Pelennor defeat? Why give the Gondorians time to regroup and Aragorn or Gandalf time to master the Ring?

2. Why were the terms not-too-bad - almost acceptable I would say?

3. And what would Sauron do if the West accepted the terms?

4. Did Sauron indeed plan to give Isengard to the Mouth? And what about Saruman?

[Earniel]

Oooh, more questions.

Originally Posted by Gordis

1. Why would Sauron decide to propose terms at all - if he hoped to crush the Gondorians like fleas? Was he so shaken by the Pelennor defeat? Why give the Gondorians time to regroup and Aragorn or Gandalf time to master the Ring?

It could fit with playing with his enemy before crushing them. Didn't Gandalf say somewhere that Sauron was the sort of person who'd pull out all the legs and wings out of an insect instead of just swatting it? If not, it was at least a discription that I found fitted Sauron nevertheless.

I think he had more than enough troops ready behind the Black Gate to wipe out the entire Gondorean and Rohirrim army and then some. I'm pretty sure he knew this. So time to regroup and set up their army was essentially worthless for the Gondoreans. Sauron could crush them anytime, but first he wanted to demoralise them some more.

And hey, if they accepted it, he had access to the West. He could see and try his old tricks again that worked so well in Númenor.

Why were the terms not-too-bad - almost acceptable I would say?

I have to disagree, the terms were pretty outrageous if you ask me. The demands that Gondor or Rohan never took arms up against Sauron and Mordor, regardless of what they got up to? Demanding to receive all the lands east of the Anduin? That would mean that Gondor not only lost the whole of Ithilien and half of Osgiliath, it would also but the bordor of Mordor within sight and hardly a day's travel on Minas Tirith. And if Sauron meant the lands east of the entire river, he'd also claim Mirkwood and the Lonely Mountain. (Although I reckon this term probably didn't refer to the lands east of the Anduin that were so far north of Mordor.)

All the lands between the Misty Mountains and the river had to pay Mordor (and you can bet he'd ask a lot) and were forbidden to ever bear weapons. And since he would have moved his border right up to Minas Tirith, he could over-run the country within days.

He also would claim Isengard with all its secrets and lore and beside that, it would put him in control of an important road between Rohan and Gondor and the lands behind the Mist Mountains. Not to mention that the Mouth of Sauron, if he was placed there, would set out pretty quick to carve himself a generously large country.

It would basically give Sauron free range and access to half the western lands of Middle-earth. Hardly acceptable terms.

3. And what would Sauron do if the West accepted the terms?

He'd probably go: "They accepted? Ha! Suckers!"

4. Did Sauron indeed plan to give Isengard to the Mouth? And what about Saruman?

Saruman had had his uses by then, and I doubt he could ever get in the good graces of Sauron again. Not only did Saruman try to betray Sauron, but he had lost much of his pursuation skills, his staff was broken in the last confrontation with Gandalf, and his armies ruined. I don't see anything that Saruman could mean for Sauron after that.

[Gordis]

Originally Posted by Eärniel

It could fit with playing with his enemy before crushing them. Didn't Gandalf say somewhere that Sauron was the sort of person who'd pull out all the legs and wings out of an insect instead of just swatting it? If not, it was at least a discription that I found fitted Sauron nevertheless.

I don't remember anyone ever said this.
Moreover, I believe it is not true: Sauron was not mindlessly sadistic. Yes he was very cruel, but above all RATIONAL. He calculated everything to a nicety. If he did something, it was on purpose and was many-many-layered.

After the defeat of Pelennor, Sauron must have done some serious thinking. He could see that Fate (or the meddling Higher Powers) had favored his enemies quite shamelessly. Please, calculate the probability of the Witch King being confronted on the battlefield by a woman in disguise + a halfling + a Barrow blade. The probability of such event would be about 0.00000something. And the probability of both the Rohirrim and the men from the south-west Gondor coming to the rescue in time and quite unlooked-for? And the Dead of Dunharrow aiding Aragorn?And the West wind blowing away the pall of Darkness in the nick of time and speeding Aragorn's ships up the Anduin? The latter especially would sound ominous for Sauron: he could have felt a direct intervention of Manwe here, (whether he were correct or not).

So what Sauron saw facing him was the new wannabe Ringlord backed by the Powers and Fate, maybe Eru - and Sauron was afraid. That's why he didn't do the only thing that might have saved him - he didn't send all his armies on Minas Tirith at once, while the armies of the West were depleted, and the Gates of the City in shambles. Instead, he sat brooding in Mordor and watched the progress of Aragorn's army to the Black Gate.

Yes, Sauron took them quite seriously, I believe, otherwise he wouldn't have summoned all the remaining nazgul to Morannon, even Khamul, who would have been so much more needed at the head of the Northern Army, beseiging Erebor.

So, I think, Sauron sent out the Mouth just to better asses the situation - he needed to know if it were Aragorn who had the Ring or it was Gandalf. The Mouth deliberately provoked both Aragorn and Gandalf - to see their reaction.

‘Is there anyone in this rout with authority to treat with me?’ he asked. ‘Or indeed with wit to understand me? Not thou at least!’ he mocked, turning to Aragorn with scorn. ‘It needs more to make a king than a piece of elvish glass, or a rabble such as this. Why, any brigand of the hills can show as good a following!’
‘Then thou art the spokesman, old greybeard? Have we not heard of thee at whiles, and of thy wanderings, ever hatching plots and mischief at a safe distance? But this time thou hast stuck out thy nose too far, Master Gandalf; and thou shalt see what comes to him who sets his foolish webs before the feet of Sauron the Great.

And then Sauron needed to know whether the West had more thump cards up their sleeves: so he gave them moderate terms (I will return to it later) to see if they would accept. Because if A+G had no Ring after all, and no other hopes, they could have accepted, saving their people from annihilation.
If they had accepted, he would know that either they were utterly weak and had no hope or they wished desperately for more time - then he would have crushed them without second thought: both Gandalf and Aragorn and maybe other high lords of Gondor - just in case.

Originally Posted by Earniel

So time to regroup and set up their army was essentially worthless for the Gondoreans. Sauron could crush them anytime, but first he wanted to demoralise them some more.

Nay, the West needed time very much (at least Sauron, not knowing about Frodo's quest, thought so). The Gates of Minas Tirith had to be repaired, more troops mustered and, most of all, the new Ringlord needed time to learn how to use the Ring. And Sauron was NOT going to give him this time (by the way, it was the reason why Sauron started the War immediatyely once he saw Aragorn in the Palantir and thought he had the Ring)

I have to disagree, the terms were pretty outrageous if you ask me. The demands that Gondor or Rohan never took arms up against Sauron and Mordor, regardless of what they got up to? Demanding to receive all the lands east of the Anduin? That would mean that Gondor not only lost the whole of Ithilien and half of Osgiliath, it would also but the bordor of Mordor within sight and hardly a day's travel on Minas Tirith. And if Sauron meant the lands east of the entire river, he'd also claim Mirkwood and the Lonely Mountain. (Although I reckon this term probably didn't refer to the lands east of the Anduin that were so far north of Mordor.)

The demand never to take arms against Mordor was quite reasonable if they signed a threaty: how could it have been otherwise? All the old Gondorian lands East of Anduin were Sauron's anyway before the war, Rhovanion and Ithilien were long deserted by Gondorians. Gondor only held half of Osgiliath and the West bank of Anduin. Nothing new would be lost here. As for Mirkwood, Dale etc. I don't think Artagorn had any authority to treat for them, or was asked to. Tribute and no weapons - well, that was not so very bad as compared to total annihilation the Gondorians were facing. At least they would be left to live and left to be ruled by their own rulers, not made into slaves.

Originally Posted by Earniel

And since he would have moved his border right up to Minas Tirith, he could over-run the country within days.

The border would remain exactly where it had been (de facto) since TA 2002 - the Anduin river

Originally Posted by Earniel

He also would claim Isengard with all its secrets and lore and beside that, it would put him in control of an important road between Rohan and Gondor and the lands behind the Mist Mountains. Not to mention that the Mouth of Sauron, if he was placed there, would set out pretty quick to carve himself a generously large country.

Sauron (via Saurman) already had access to all of it anyway. And the Mouth could hardly prove to be as dangerous as the traitor Saruman, a maia and the head of the White Council.

Originally Posted by Earniel

He'd probably go: "They accepted? Ha! Suckers!"

Yes, he would say that and once the peace is agreed upon and Gondor disarmed, he would get his hands on Gandalf and Aragorn to make sure they had no Ring after all. Not finding it, he would attack Lorien in earnest - because that would be the next likely place to keep it.

[Earniel]

Originally Posted by Gordis

I don't remember anyone ever said this.
Moreover, I believe it is not true: Sauron was not mindlessly sadistic. Yes he was very cruel, but above all RATIONAL. He calculated everything to a nicety. If he did something, it was on purpose and was many-many-layered.

I looked up and the quote is indeed less forward than my paraphrasing but the idea is still there:

"If the Dark Lord knows so much as you say, Mithrandir, will he not rather smile than fear, and with his little finger crush us like a fly that tries to sting him?"
"No, he will try to trap the fly and take the sting", said Gandalf.

I never said Sauron was mindlessly sadistic. I do think he was a very calculating and rational being. But none of that contradicts the idea that he would like to toy and with his enemies first.

After the defeat of Pelennor, Sauron must have done some serious thinking. He could see that Fate (or the meddling Higher Powers) had favored his enemies quite shamelessly. Please, calculate the probability of the Witch King being confronted on the battlefield by a woman in disguise + a halfling + a Barrow blade. The probability of such event would be about 0.00000something. And the probability of both the Rohirrim and the men from the south-west Gondor coming to the rescue in time and quite unlooked-for? And the Dead of Dunharrow aiding Aragorn?And the West wind blowing away the pall of Darkness in the nick of time and speeding Aragorn's ships up the Anduin? The latter especially would sound ominous for Sauron: he could have felt a direct intervention of Manwe here, (whether he were correct or not).

I disagree with your assesment of the involvement of the West. Technically both the presence of the barrow sword and of Eowyn is mainly due to Sauron's own dealings. The barrow sword was there because Sauron (or his minions) had filled the barrows with ghosts. If the barrow wight had not attacked the hobbits, they never could have gotten those swords. I don't think you can quite count Bombadil's intervention as meddling from the Higher powers since Bombadil is quite his own. Sauron's own dealings got the sword where it would bite the hardest.

Eowyn was there because like Theoden, Wormtongue had also poisoned her mind, making her think there was no glory left in Rohan, and forcing her to seek it in death on a battlefield elsewhere. We knew the Witch-King could not be bested by any Man, but that is a long away from saying that the Powers knew exactly who could best him and made it sure. You can speculate about this, but I see little evidence for it.

Merry's presence is mainly because of Gandalf who reasoned with Elrond to sent them both along. You could say Gandalf was inspired by the Powers for that, but I think Gandalf was pretty much left to his own devices. The Powers would not have sent the wizards if they intended some other form of interventions. They could have easily stopped the failures of the other wizards then.

I can see no intervention from the far West in the coming of the Rohirrim. And basically Aragorn taking the Path of the Dead was on biding of Galadriel. One can argue here that it was Galadriel's own foresight to suggest it, or prompting from the West. I'll grant this. But if the dead had not been loyal to Sauron in the past, they wouldn't have been there now to aid Aragorn. While keeping the army Isildur needed in the Last Alliance from him, Sauron accidentally made it possible for a strong army to be available against him at a moment he expected it not. The fact that Aragorn arrived on time, was pretty much because he kept looking in the palantir and knew when he had to arrive. And story-wise one has to admit, it is much more dramatic the way it happened.

So I'd name only the wind as direct show of support from the West. Hardly shamelessly. There's a theme visible in Tolkien's work, where evil will eventually be wrought to do some good. I'd say this is very much it. Sauron's own work was eventually turned against him, in this chapter and in others. I don't think the Powers can be implicated therein, I'd say this is something that was fixed in the Songs of the Ainur long before they came down to Arda.

So what Sauron saw facing him was the new wannabe Ringlord backed by the Powers and Fate, maybe Eru - and Sauron was afraid. That's why he didn't do the only thing that might have saved him - he didn't send all his armies on Minas Tirith at once, while the armies of the West were depleted, and the Gates of the City in shambles. Instead, he sat brooding in Mordor and watched the progress of Aragorn's army to the Black Gate.

I don't think sending the armies to Minas Tirith at once would have been a rational decision. Nor do I quite think he could have gotten all his armies quite that at once. It took him a few days to amass them at the Black Gate.

Yes, Sauron took them quite seriously, I believe, otherwise he wouldn't have summoned all the remaining nazgul to Morannon, even Khamul, who would have been so much more needed at the head of the Northern Army, beseiging Erebor.

Never said Sauron didn't take them seriously. I just think he made sure he could beat them on a martial level and knew this. Unless these western upstarts drew the Ring's power, Sauron's armies at the Black Gate were capable of dealing with them.

The demand never to take arms against Mordor was quite reasonable if they signed a threaty: how could it have been otherwise? All the old Gondorian lands East of Anduin were Sauron's anyway before the war, Rhovanion and Ithilien were long deserted by Gondorians. Gondor only held half of Osgiliath and the West bank of Anduin. Nothing new would be lost here. As for Mirkwood, Dale etc. I don't think Artagorn had any authority to treat for them, or was asked to. Tribute and no weapons - well, that was not so very bad as compared to total annihilation the Gondorians were facing. At least they would be left to live and left to be ruled by their own rulers, not made into slaves.

I disagree with the demands being reasonable. The lands south of the Anduin had been taken by Sauron, yes, but they were also re-taken when the Western armies marched through them. Sauron also had no claim on the lands, other than by conquest. The treaty would not officiate a current situation. It would mean Gondor would had to give up lands they owned quite longer than Sauron, lands that had been captured by the enemy, but also retaken.

Sauron (via Saurman) already had access to all of it anyway. And the Mouth could hardly prove to be as dangerous as the traitor Saruman, a maia and the head of the White Council.

I don't quite find both situations comparable. While Saruman was under Sauron's sway, he was not his agent. Sauron mostly dealt with Saruman through subterfuge. And Saruman hid his alliance with Mordor for a long time. With the Mouth, Mordor's influence would be able to act far more openly and more directly.

[CAB]

Concerning Sauron's fears about his enemies in Middle Earth receiving help from higher up, I agree with Gordis. We have to remember, when considering Sauron's actions (and I would guess this applies when looking at any character's actions) that his own beliefs or suspicions matter far more than the actual truth. Maybe Eru and the Valar had taken a hand and maybe they hadn't, but it is very likely that Sauron believed that they had, given how unlikely his defeat on the Pelanor was and the hard-to-miss symbolic western wind.

Originally Posted by Gordis

Please, calculate the probability of the Witch King being confronted on the battlefield by a woman in disguise + a halfling + a Barrow blade.

You could say that the chances are incredibly small, but there is another way to look at it. The prophesy that the Witch King wouldn't be defeated by a Man is really also a prophesy that he would be defeated by someone who wasn't a Man. Looked at this way, Eowyn, Merry, and the sword's presence aren't particularly surprising. Sooner or later some non-Man would have to be around to kill the Witch King and would need the proper tool to do the job. It was simply a matter of when.




About the terms, I would guess that they were pretty much meaningless, beyond Sauron toying with his enemies. Sauron could probably be expected to not stick to an agreement. The westerners could be expected not to accept any terms (except Sauron's surrender) given the situation. They had just won a major battle and marched several days (often proclaiming on the way that they were taking back their land) to Sauron's gates, where they demanded he "come forth. Justice shall be done upon him." Most importantly, Sauron thought that the new (but still learning) ringlord was leading this army. One of the Ring's effects is to make its holder think he is capable of much more than he in truth is. So, I think Sauron knew quite well that the westerners didn't come to surrender.

[Earniel]

Originally Posted by CAB

Concerning Sauron's fears about his enemies in Middle Earth receiving help from higher up, I agree with Gordis. We have to remember, when considering Sauron's actions (and I would guess this applies when looking at any character's actions) that his own beliefs or suspicions matter far more than the actual truth.

True enough, but I don't think I have questioned the difference between actual events and Sauron's perception of them, at least it was not my intention. I was speaking (or attempting to at least) about the possibility/probability of a Western intervention, not Sauron's thoughts about it.

I may have mis-understood Gordis' post then.

[Butterbeer]

mmmm.. read this (sketchily this morning - had a few things to add ...)

but am too tired now to concentrate ...

Have fun all, best BB

[Gordis]

Originally Posted by Earniel

I never said Sauron was mindlessly sadistic. I do think he was a very calculating and rational being. But none of that contradicts the idea that he would like to toy with his enemy first.

OK, he would probably do that if he were confident in himself. But it was not the case at the Black Gate. I don't think he was simply toying- he tried to get more info this way.

Originally Posted by Earniel

I disagree with your assessment of the involvement of the West.

CAB was right that I wanted to show things from Sauron's perspective, not to prove the immediate involvement of the Valar/Eru. Though I must say that on three occasions: the prophetic dream "Seek for the Sword that was broken", the resurrection and upgrade of Gandalf, and the West Wind, I see direct meddling of the Powers (here I mean both Eru and the Valar). For the rest the intervention is more difficult to pinpoint, things just happened this way, but Sauron would likely see the hand of Fate here also.

Tolkien says Sauron was weighting and calculating everything, that's why I spoke about probabilities. When lots of low-probability events happen at once, and all of them in favour of his enemies, it can't be natural.

Let us take a random example. For instance at the Buckleberry ferry the boat happened to be moored on the West bank. If it were at the East bank, the hobbits would have been caught by the nazgul, most likely. The probability here is 50% - so I doubt this event being not in his favour would worry Sauron unduly, not like something with probability of 0.000001% - like the fall of the WK. (I hope I am coherent here! )

CAB is right, the fall of the WK to "no man" had been prophesized, not random. So it must have been in the Music, but then perhaps all the rest was as well? Maybe Sauron's fall was also simply inevitable? Maybe the ones who had played the music took care afterwards to see it all come to pass? There was a lot to set the Dark Lord thinking and to make him afraid.

See how Sauron had reacted to the nazgul's failure in the Shire:

The wrath and fear of Sauron then may be guessed; yet if there was any in the world in whom he trusted it was the Lord of Angmar; and if his wrath were lessened by perceiving that his great servant had defeated by ill chance (and the craft of the Wise) rather than by faults of his own, his fear would be the more – seeing what power was yet in his Enemies, and how sharply fortune favoured them at each turn when all seemed lost. Marquette MSS 4/2/36 (The Hunt for the Ring) RC, p 262-3

By the way, Saruman felt much the same way about Gandalf:

In his heart Saruman recognized the great power and the strange "good fortune" that went with Gandalf.-UT

Originally Posted by Earniel

I disagree with the demands being reasonable. The lands south of the Anduin had been taken by Sauron, yes, but they were also re-taken when the Western armies marched through them. Sauron also had no claim on the lands, other than by conquest. The treaty would not officiate a current situation. It would mean Gondor would had to give up lands they owned quite longer than Sauron, lands that had been captured by the enemy, but also retaken.

Well Earniel... if we go back, the lands were most likely Sauron's very own since he settled in Mordor around 1000 of the Second Age. Then Isildur quite brasenly built Minas Ithil right on Sauron's doorstep, annexing Mordor's lands unlawfully. The same was true for the East bank of Anduin and for Umbar and Harad that the nasty Gondorian imperialists had conquered around TA 1000.

[Earniel]

Originally Posted by Gordis

OK, he would probably do that if he were confident in himself. But it was not the case at the Black Gate. I don't think he was simply toying- he tried to get more info this way.

I do still think Sauron was confident in his military force at the Black gate. The possibility of the ring being used was indeed a gnawing uncertainty and I do agree the Mouth of Sauron was trying to fish for information during the conversation with the gondorean embassy, just as Gandalf was from his side. But I do think that Sauron had sufficiently prepared for the only thing he could fully prepare for, and that was military strenght. Confident at least in his greater military strenght, but probably not quite as confident in other factors such as the West involvement of Aragorn use and possession of the Ring.

CAB was right that I wanted to show things from Sauron's perspective, not to prove the immediate involvement of the Valar/Eru. Though I must say that on three occasions: the prophetic dream "Seek for the Sword that was broken", the resurrection and upgrade of Gandalf, and the West Wind, I see direct meddling of the Powers (here I mean both Eru and the Valar). For the rest the intervention is more difficult to pinpoint, things just happened this way, but Sauron would likely see the hand of Fate here also.

Okay, I misunderstood then.

It would be interesting to know whether or how much Sauron knew of the prophecy and Gandalf's upgrade. He could have learned of the prophecy only through Denethor since it wasn't that widely known. But I have my doubts that Denethor had much faith in the whole thing or that Sauron could pry this from him.

Gandalf's upgrade may not have been evident, other than his sudden preference to white garb. The Witch-King makes no mention of it in their brief encounter, but then again their meeting was brief. If he noticed anything, I doubt he had the time to pass this info through to Sauron. Unless they got some out of Saruman earlier, but it remains to be seen if Saruman in his bitterness saw much of changes in Gandalf.

It must have been pretty frightening for Sauron to consider the influence of the Valar. Regardless of what hint Sauron did perceive of it, it must surely have puzzled him as it sort of puzzles me. Why now? They never interfered with Sauron before, not even in the last Alliance. The sending of the wizards is about the only thing the Valar have done since the destruction of Númenor, and even that is rather indirect.

CAB is right, the fall of the WK to "no man" had been prophesized, not random. So it must have been in the Music, but then perhaps all the rest was as well? Maybe Sauron's fall was also simply inevitable? Maybe the ones who had played the music took care afterwards to see it all come to pass? There was a lot to set the Dark Lord thinking and to make him afraid.

It's difficult to say just what was in the Music, I'm inclined to take the stance that individual events were not sung in the Music, only themes and rules by which they would take place. But this position is debatable.

Well Earniel... if we go back, the lands were most likely Sauron's very own since he settled in Mordor around 1000 of the Second Age. Then Isildur quite brasenly built Minas Ithil right on Sauron's doorstep, annexing Mordor's lands unlawfully. The same was true for the East bank of Anduin and for Umbar and Harad that the nasty Gondorian imperialists had conquered around TA 1000.

Yes and no, Sauron only had Mordor itself as his land, while the other lands around were likely under influence, they were not his. Frankly I doubt Ithilien would have been as beautiful a land if it had been Sauron's. If the Exiles hadn't thought Sauron had perished in Númenor, I doubt they'd have built homes right on his doorstep, not in his land but at the borders. It was not the brightest choice of living space, if you ask me, but hey.

Umbar is a very difficult place to put ownership on, the Gondorean claim can indeed be considered sketchy after all this time. But Sauron pretty much never actually owned it, in my eyes. The Black Númenoreans were followers of Sauron, but not necessarily subjects.

Sauron doesn't own Harad in a similar way. If the lands of Umbar and Harad were included in the terms, then basically what Sauron is asking is more land than the Gondoreans actually can give since some of it was neither theirs or Sauron's in the first place. But that's the last I'm going to say on this matter. Sorry Gordis, but all these territory disputes make my head spin.

[Gordis]

Originally Posted by Earniel

It would be interesting to know whether or how much Sauron knew of the prophecy and Gandalf's upgrade. He could have learned of the prophecy only through Denethor since it wasn't that widely known. But I have my doubts that Denethor had much faith in the whole thing or that Sauron could pry this from him.

Sauron knew of the Prophecy all right. See here in UT "the Hunt for the Ring"

When [the nazgul] came back to the Wold September [3018] had come; and there they met messengers from Barad-dûr conveying threats from their Master that filled even the Morgul-lord with dismay. For Sauron had now learned of the words of prophecy heard in Gondor, and the going forth of Boromir, of Saruman's deeds, and the capture of Gandalf.

Gandalf's upgrade may not have been evident, other than his sudden preference to white garb. ... Unless they got some out of Saruman earlier, but it remains to be seen if Saruman in his bitterness saw much of changes in Gandalf

I think Sauron soon learned that someone has done in the poor old Moria Barlog. (orcs from Moria met Mordor orcs at Part Galen). Who? - Obviously Gandalf. Maybe it was also reported that Gandalf had fallen.

Also Saruman must have given some explanations to the two nazgul sent to him. The first one went to investigate how the things were going and flew over Dol Baran. Another was dispatched to Isengard at top speed right after Sauron's video-conference with Pippin. I guess Saruman told all he knew to be left alone and not taken to Mordor for questioning. And the fact that Gandalf took on Saruman's White color and broke his staff and kicked him out of the Order meant that Gandalf now had the AUTHORITY and power from Up-High that he had never possessed before. Neither Saruman, nor Sauron could have missed it.

[Earniel]

Good points. I stand corrected, Sauron must have known something of both.

[The Gaffer]

Originally Posted by Gordis

Also Saruman must have given some explanations to the two nazgul sent to him. The first one went to investigate how the things were going and flew over Dol Baran. Another was dispatched to Isengard at top speed right after Sauron's video-conference with Pippin. I guess Saruman told all he knew to be left alone and not taken to Mordor for questioning. And the fact that Gandalf took on Saruman's White color and broke his staff and kicked him out of the Order meant that Gandalf now had the AUTHORITY and power from Up-High that he had never possessed before. Neither Saruman, nor Sauron could have missed it.

Not necessarily. Gandalf comments that Saruman still had power to resist the Nazgul from within Orthanc, and they were soon busy terrorising Minas Tirith.

Secondly, there was no telepathic link with Nazgul. All the news Sauron got was (through the Palantir) "a hobbit in Isengard = RING" + "heir of Elendil" = "EEK!")

[Gordis]

Originally Posted by The Gaffer

Not necessarily. Gandalf comments that Saruman still had power to resist the Nazgul from within Orthanc, and they were soon busy terrorising Minas Tirith.

Not necessarily, but likely, IMO. The two nazgul surely reached Isengard and saw the destruction, water, maybe Ents etc. So it was evident that Saruman indeed had problems.
I don't think that Saruman walked out onto the roof to meet the nazgul. He had been afraid to meet them in person even in September 3018, when he believed himself to be in Sauron's good graces - see UT:

Two days after Gandalf had departed from Orthanc, the Lord of Morgul halted before the Gate of Isengard. Then Saruman, already filled with wrath and fear by the escape of Gandalf, perceived the peril of standing between enemies, a known traitor to both. His dread was great, for his hope of deceiving Sauron, or at the least of receiving his favour in victory, was utterly lost. Now either he himself must gain the Ring or come to ruin and torment. But he was wary and cunning still, and he had ordered Isengard against just such an evil chance. The Circle of Isengard was too strong for even the Lord of Morgul and his company to assail without great force of war. Therefore to his challenge and demands the Morgul Lord received only the answer of the voice of Saruman, that spoke by some art as though it came from the Gate itself.

Most likely Saruman used his "intercom" voice again to talk with the messengers and give his explanations. I don't think he remained inside mute - not like him at all, as the only advantage he had was his persuasive voice. He must have used it to explain things.

And it is evident that Sauron believed him more or less, that he stopped thinking that Saruman had got the Ring. Otherwise the Mordor army would have marched on Isengard, not on Minas Tirith.

Originally Posted by The Gaffer

Secondly, there was no telepathic link with Nazgul. All the news Sauron got was (through the Palantir) "a hobbit in Isengard = RING" + "heir of Elendil" = "EEK!")

No, I didn't imply any telepathic link. The nazgul inspecting Orthanc surely returned back to Barad Dur in 7-8 hours and reported.

[The Telcontarion]

Matt.10;34:
"Think not that I am come to send peace on earth: I came not to send peace, but a sword."

Just a little more proof on that point about jesus not being a pacifist.