Homosexual marriage II

[inked]

Ever note that when it's put to polls, gay marriage is denied and that it takes judicial activism or legislative activism to enforce a minority view on the general populace?

Obama is desperate for votes and "evolved" his view to try to beat Romney by the 1-2.7% gay vote en bloc - if it goes for Obama given the job situation and economy.

Note that in the 2007 to 2008 campaign, the O-man went for the conservative side and affirmed marriage as betwixt a man and a woman. Politicians...

[Insidious Rex]

Originally Posted by inked

Ever note that when it's put to polls, gay marriage is denied and that it takes judicial activism or legislative activism to enforce a minority view on the general populace?

You mean kind of like it did in 1967 when The Supreme Court ruled against the constitutionality of the anti-miscegenation laws of the time despite the fact that MOST americans opposed mixed race marriage? What egregious "judicial activism"!! How dare the courts base their decision on the Constitutional rights of its citizens when the vast majority of Americans think otherwise!

And as for Obama deciding to officially declare his support for gay marriage, I really dont think that this was done for his political benefit. It was done mostly because Biden opened his fat mouth about it and essentially called out his own President on it. No one who was planning on NOT voting for Obama suddenly had their mind changed because of the statement. Does it shore up his base? Certainly not his black base which was distressed by the statement. And his white non-homosexual base largely doesnt see gay marriage as an important electoral issue (nor does the tea party/libertarian faction on the other side for that matter). And energizing a couple thousand gays in New York and San Francisco to rush out and vote for him when they might not have before seems a ridiculous notion to take such a risk. I think he would have been more than happy to coast to the election without having to make a formal statement on it at all.

[GrayMouser]

Why gay marriage loses in referendums.

1) Support for gay marriage is growing at an amazing rate; ten years ago I figured it would take at least a generation to reach majority support.
Support for gay marriage is not only growing, its growing most among younger people. Turnout in general is higher among older voters, and especially so in in primaries and referendums.

2) Commitment. Most people in favour of gay marriage are not gay; it's a feel-good measure: "Sure, they're people too, why not?"
Antis, OTOH, tend to be "If this passes, the WORLD IS COMING TO AN END!!!!". So, there's an enthusiasm gap.

3) Organisation. Through the Catholic, Mormon, and Fundamentalist Churches the anti-marriage forces have existing wide-reaching organisations which are heavily involved in getting members to the polls and spending large sums of money on swinging the issue.

Check back in 5 or 10 years.

As for Obama, I assume he was lying about this for the last few years for political reasons, but I think it was less Biden forcing him to come out than the fact that quite a few Democratic state committees were promising to raise a stink about it at the convention. Basically, his hand was forced. I would guess he would have preferred to dodge the issue and not have to support it until after the election; as it turned out it was, if anything, a mild plus.

[The Gaffer]

I agree with that, there has been an enormous change in attitudes towards those whose preference is batting for the other team.

Most of that is down to the cumulative courage of millions of individuals coming out in the face of society-wide opprobrium.

It's great!

[GrayMouser]

Will Maryland be the first?

Currently pro-marriage forces leading 57%-37%, following an amazing shift among black voters after Obama's statement of support.

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-dru...ality-maryland

[inked]

Referendum? Legislative fiat? Judicial activism?

NOT even California voted for it, ya'll.

The shift in the black populace after the O man's "endorsemnt" is negligible.

[Insidious Rex]

Originally Posted by inked

The shift in the black populace after the O man's "endorsemnt" is negligible.

Dont know about that. Poll numbers show the opposite:

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Maryland finds a significant increase in support for same-sex marriage among African American voters following President Obama’s historic announcement two weeks ago. The referendum to keep the state’s new law legalizing same-sex marriage now appears likely to pass by a healthy margin. Here are some key findings:

-57% of Maryland voters say they’re likely to vote for the new marriage law this fall, compared to only 37% who are opposed. That 20 point margin of passage represents a 12 point shift from an identical PPP survey in early March, which found it ahead by a closer 52/44 margin.

-The movement over the last two months can be explained almost entirely by a major shift in opinion about same-sex marriage among black voters. Previously 56% said they would vote against the new law with only 39% planning to uphold it. Those numbers have now almost completely flipped, with 55% of African Americans planning to vote for the law and only 36% now opposed.

-The big shift in attitudes toward same-sex marriage among black voters in Maryland is reflective of what’s happening nationally right now. A new ABC/Washington Post poll finds 59% of African Americans across the country supportive of same-sex marriage. A PPP poll in the critical swing state of Pennsylvania last weekend found a shift of 19 points in favor of same-sex marriage among black voters.

While the media has been focused on what impact President Obama’s announcement will have on his own reelection prospects, the more important fallout may be the impact his position is having on public opinion about same-sex marriage itself.

Maryland voters were already prepared to support marriage equality at the polls this fall even before President Obama’s announcement. But now it appears that passage will come by a much stronger margin.

[inked]

Battling Polls, then, IR!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...VuV_story.html


Poll: Obama’s endorsement of gay marriage leaves both sides more entrenched


By Associated Press, Published: June 22

WASHINGTON — President Barack Obama’s endorsement of gay marriage appears to have made Americans on both sides of the issue even more entrenched in their positions, firing up his young, liberal backers and intensifying opposition from Republicans and conservatives, according to a new poll.

Overall, his announcement last month that he supported gay marriage did little to shift the nation’s views on the subject, with the country remaining evenly divided on it, the Associated Press-GfK survey found. ...

In the poll, 42 percent of respondents oppose gay marriage, 40 percent support it and 15 percent are neutral. Last August, the country was similarly divided over whether same-sex couples should be allowed to be legally married in their state, with 45 percent opposing, 42 percent favoring and 10 percent neutral. ...

[The Gaffer]

Originally Posted by inked

In the poll, 42 percent of respondents oppose gay marriage, 40 percent support it and 15 percent are neutral. Last August, the country was similarly divided over whether same-sex couples should be allowed to be legally married in their state, with 45 percent opposing, 42 percent favoring and 10 percent neutral. ...

In what way does that poll data represent "more entrenched" positions?

[inked]

That would be a question for the Washington Post. Apparently they needed news for that day..........

On the other hand, culture warriors have used the Pres' "evolution" on the subject (talk about cynical manipulation!) to press their own, so it may be that these facts are like the polls that show Americans believe 25% of the population to be homosexual. (That undoubtedly comes from watching too much TV ...).

[GrayMouser]

Any need to add anything?

Oh, wait, it's only a majority of voters. It doesn't count unless it's a super-majority: 60%; 66%; 50.1 of the entire population, not just voters; anyway, those are just a bunch of liberal states, so it's not like real people support it.

[Insidious Rex]

So proud of my state that it inspires me to song...

...Come senators, congressmen
Please heed the call
Don't stand in the doorway
Don't block up the hall
For he that gets hurt
Will be he who has stalled
There's a battle outside
And it is ragin
It'll soon shake your windows
And rattle your walls
For the times they are a-changin.

Come mothers and fathers
Throughout the land
And don't criticize
What you can't understand
Your sons and your daughters
Are beyond your command
Your old road is
Rapidly agin
Please get out of the new one
If you can't lend your hand
For the times they are a-changin.

And marijuana legalization passage in Washington and Colorado is certainly another sign of this...

[Willow Oran]

Washington too! The opposition conceded today.

[The last sane person]

Wooo!

[Lotesse]

AWESOME.

Now i've got that beautiful Bob Dylan song stuck in my head, thanks Insidious Rex! I just read those lyrics & his voice replays in my head exactly like the song.

LOVE!!

[GrayMouser]

Add Rhode Island, Delaware and Minnesota.

New Zealand, with Britain and France coming along.

[Insidious Rex]

Like flies... Now Im just waiting for when they strike down DOMA sometime this summer and the floodgates really open.