Is the Iraq debate coming to an end?

[Coffeehouse]

Originally Posted by Curufin

Here's the question, though - in terms of identity, do they consider themselves more (a) 'Sunni' or 'Shia' or more (b) 'Iraqi'? I don't actually know the answer to this question, but if Iraq follows the paradigm of the other ethnic conflicts I've studied, my guess would be that there is very little "Iraqi" identity, and much more "Sunni" or "Shia" identity. And if this is true, that they identify more with (a) than with (b), then chances for a peaceful settlement drop dramatically.

Yeah, I think that's the right question to ask. And I'd for for (a) too, especially seeing that Sunnis in Iraq are deeply sceptical and often graphically opposed to Iranian influence on the Shia community, on the Al-Maliki gov't and on the arms crossing the border. And they should rightfully be so knowing what the Iranians are capable of doing.

If the answer is (a) then potentially, doesn't have to happen, Iraq will not only be engulfed in yet another war, but one that could be far bloodier, and one that could entrap not only the Iranians, but the Saudis, the Jordanians, the Syrians, and even the Turks: Suddenly we have the regional nightmare that a few wise people warned off before the 2003 invasion. And sure enough the U.S. will stand somewhere in the middle of it, having so many assets (read oil) at stake.