Aragorn, Sauron, and the Ring Ruse

[Alcuin]

Rereading The Lord of the Rings, it suddenly dawned upon me why from the moment Aragorn wrenched the Orthanc-stone away from its link with the old Ithil-stone in Barad-dûr, Sauron panicked. Once he saw Aragorn, he must have believed the Heir of Isildur had the Ring, and that he had begun to wield it.

When Frodo sat on Amon Hen wearing the One Ring, Sauron knew the Ringbearer was wearing the Ring, and he knew generally where he was. Frodo sensed him searching Amon Lhaw and Tol Brandir, and tore off the Ring just before Sauron checked Amon Hen.

Sauron’s reaction would be to grab his trusty palantÃ*r and start looking – and hard. Within an hour or so, maybe less, Sauron could see a man seated upon Amon Hen. Whether Sauron could determine that he was Dúnadan or not, I don’t know, but I suspect he could. Whom do you suppose Sauron would assume had been wearing the Ring? Who could that Man be?

The orcs seized Merry and Pippin. This Sauron knew. But neither he nor Saruman knew what had become of them: no orcs escaped. Perhaps he saw the Three Hunters chasing the orcs, but perhaps not: they were running along the messy track the orcs made, and they were wearing the grey cloaks of Lórien: he could easily have missed them. If missed them, that could only make him more anxious: how did the Man hide himself?

Like Saruman, Sauron probably believed Isengard strong enough to defeat Rohan. How did Saruman’s suffer twin defeats at Helm’s Deep and Isengard? Could the Ring be at work?

A Halfling looks into the palantÃ*r. Sauron believes Saruman has done this to torment the creature, and sends his erstwhile sidekick a message. But then…

The Heir of Isildur reveals himself, threatens him with Elendil’s sword reforged, refuses to speak to him, and wrenches control of the Stone of Orthanc away from him.

How did the Orthanc-stone fall into hands of Isildur’s Heir? Orthanc was still standing, and it was virtually impregnable. (Even to ents!) There was no sign of siege engines or that the fortress had been invested: it was just ... wrecked. Overnight. Kablooey.

The Halfling’s appearance must have been the Dúnadan probing the stone. From Sauron’s point of view, destroying an expendable person is a perfectly reasonable, acceptable practice.

After that, he would naturally misinterpret the dream-rhyme: the Sword-that-was-Broken was reforged in Imladris. Check. The Elven-spells made there had already proven stronger than all his Nazgûl, who were defeated near Imladris. Check. Isildur’s Bane had appeared with a Halfling. Check. Doom is near at hand. Uh-oh.

Sauron’s point of view:

• He senses the Ring being used and is able to narrow down where it might be. If he looks again using the palantÃ*r, he finds a Dúnadan on the Seat of Seeing where the Ring might have been.
• He doesn’t know what happened to the two Halflings he knows the orcs captured, and because the Three Hunters are cloaked with Galadriel’s weave and travelling in the orcs’ ruinous trail, he could miss them.
• The orc trail leads straight to Saruman.
• Saruman is suddenly uncommunicative.
• Saruman attacks Helm’s Deep with a superior army but is beaten.
• Isengard is wrecked at the same time, but no army is in sight.
• Orthanc itself is intact and looks undamaged.
• A Halfing looks into the stone. He has no message from Saruman.
• He is suddenly confronted with the Heir of Isildur using the Stone of Orthanc. The Dúnadan threatens him with Narsil reforged, and he rips the Stone of Orthanc from his control.

The Heir of Isildur must have his Ring. What will he do next? Go to Minas Tirith, of course! What to do? Stop him NOW!

Sauron has to keep the Heir of Isildur from reaching Minas Tirith. If he has the Ring, he can easily take command of the City and marshal all its forces, perhaps raising up who-knows-what long-forgotten weapons from the City’s ancient past. He might be able to resist the Nazgûl, or even take command of one or more of them.

The speed of Sauron’s attack was not just to strike first and hard. He had to prevent Isildur’s Heir from reaching Minas Tirith and establishing a strong rival power center with the Ring.

[mithrand1r]

Good bit of detective work. It seems reasonable. (Even if it is not what JRRT had in mind.) From what I know of Sauron (From LOTR only) this seems a good possibility.

Is there any possible way for one to know with certainty (from a distance) if someone has the One Ring?

[Olmer]

Hm.. Intresting, as any other theories. But where does it say about Sauron panicking? Quote, please.
As far, as I know, the war was imminent. It is not like in rush he has to abandon the building of the army and charge ahead with whatever he had. I think, he began the war according his own plans, as soon as the manpower from his allies has arrived.
Any way, IHMO, Aragorn was not his primal concern. Why to worry if, according Tolkien, any man can't wield the Ring, because eventually he will be subservient to Sauron's will. He waited for thouthands years, he could wait more. No rush.
His cause of worry was another maia, empowered with the Ring of his own design. The true adversary of the same level as he is, which spells troubles ahead for Sauron's future.

[CAB]

This is a very strong argument, Alcuin. I used to think that, since Aragorn didn't show the Ring to Sauron during their confrontation, that Sauron would have, at most, only wondered if maybe, possibly Aragorn had the Ring. You have now convinced me otherwise.

The only point I would question is Sauron spotting Aragorn on Amon Hen. Sauron either didn't need the Palantir to look at Amon Hen, or else he had already used it when Frodo managed to elude his search. Saruon didn't know that the Ringbearer was on Amon Hen or he wouldn't have searched the surrounding area. There were several people in the area and the seat wasn't reserved for "Ringbearers Only". If the Ringbearer had already used the seat, and narrowly escaped detection, why would he return so shortly thereafter?

I think all your other points are excellent. When considered in combination, Sauron probably would have assumed that Aragorn had the Ring. You can call me converted.

Other (later) points that may have convinced Sauron were, of course, Gondor's victory on the Pelannor, and most interestingly, the news of the Dead Men. If Sauron wasn't previously aware of the situation regarding the Dead Men, then he likely would have lost all doubts about Aragorn's possession (and use) of the One after he heard about Aragorn leading an army of ghosts. It almost makes me wonder if Aragorn had the Ring.

Edit: I do have to wonder, though, if it is possible that Aragorn could have used the Ring to the needed extent to defeat Saruman or control an army of Dead Men without Sauron sensing it through the other rings he possessed.

Alcuin's argument brings an often asked question to my mind: Who was Gothmog, Lieutenant of Morgul? I (like many others) had thought that Gothmog was most likely a Nazgul. The ideas presented by Alcuin cause a problem with this belief. If Aragorn had gained some control of the Ring, then he conceivably could have taken control of Sauron's captain of the assault on Gondor, the Witch King, along with the remaining Nazgul. Wouldn't it then make sense for Sauron to place a non-Nazgul as second in charge?

This reminds me of the movie "Crimson Tide". The movie concerns a US nuclear submarine. In this movie, the sub has a captain (who is, of course, the leader of the ship) and also an executive officer (XO), who is second in command. To oversimplify things, if the captain "goes crazy" then the XO is authorized to take control from him.
Note-I have no idea how true this situation actually is in either the US Navy or in other navies around the world. It certainly does make sense in regard to the leadership on nuclear submarines though.


This could be similar to the situation with Sauron's captain on the Pelannor. Aragorn's supposed control of the One could have made the Witch King (for Sauron's intents and purposes) "go crazy". The other Nazgul would have been unsuitable in this case to be the Witch King's "XO". Gothmog therefore would have been a non-Nazgul and may have been placed as the second in charge (as the Witch King's "executive officer") only shortly before the attack on Gondor, as a counter to the possibility of Aragorn taking control of the Nazgul via the Ring.

[Gordis]

Originally Posted by CAB

Alcuin's argument brings an often asked question to my mind: Who was Gothmog, Lieutenant of Morgul? I (like many others) had thought that Gothmog was most likely a Nazgul. The ideas presented by Alcuin cause a problem with this belief. If Aragorn had gained some control of the Ring, then he conceivably could have taken control of Sauron's captain of the assault on Gondor, the Witch King, along with the remaining Nazgul. Wouldn't it then make sense for Sauron to place a non-Nazgul as second in charge?
This could be similar to the situation with Sauron's captain on the Pelannor. Aragorn's supposed control of the One could have made the Witch King (for Sauron's intents and purposes) "go crazy". The other Nazgul would have been unsuitable in this case to be the Witch King's "XO". Gothmog therefore would have been a non-Nazgul and may have been placed as the second in charge (as the Witch King's "executive officer") only shortly before the attack on Gondor, as a counter to the possibility of Aragorn taking control of the Nazgul via the Ring.

Could Sauron expect the Man to learn to use the full power of the Ring so soon?

Sauron knew that the Heir of Isildur had been in Rohan on March 6. All the roads leading frm Rohan to Pelennor had been cut, he believed. There was no way for the Pretender to come to Minas Tirith in time.

And was it possible at all to convert a nazgul to his side with Sauron having primary control via the Nine rings? At most the nazgul would feign to obey, but would he really "turn"? Most likely he would seize the first occasion to jump on his bird and escape to Mordor.

I don't think Sauron was really afraid for his nazgul at that point. After all, here comes the army of Rohan which, very probably, has the Pretender with the Ring among their number. Yet the Witch-King has no problem to approach and attack the newcomers - and he does it alone. Had he really feared the Ring in strong hands, he would have left the field at the sound of horns.

[CAB]

Originally Posted by Gordis

I don't think Sauron was really afraid for his nazgul at that point. After all, here comes the army of Rohan which, very probably, has the Pretender with the Ring among their number. Yet the Witch-King has no problem to approach and attack the newcomers - and he does it alone. Had he really feared the Ring in strong hands, he would have left the field at the sound of horns.

Well, surely the Nazgul being turned by the new Ringlord wasn't Sauron's chief concern. He did leave the Witch King in command of his army. However, there was a possibility that Aragorn could begin controlling the Nazgul. The prudent thing to do in this situation is put a non-Nazgul in place as a Morgul version of an "XO". Like many other common safety measures, it would hopefully (probably) not to be used or needed, but it was important nonetheless.

[Gordis]

It may be as you say, CAB, but still there is too little evidence to convince me that Gothmog was not a nazgul.

On the other hand, let us take the battle of Morannon. Here it seems sure that no nazgul was in command of the troops. All the remaining Eight were seen hovering above the Gates on their Fell Beasts.
Perhaps the reasoning here on Sauron's part was
1. to prevent the wannabe Ringlord taking control of the nazgul commander of Sauron's army
2. to put the nazgul out of harm's way as the Barrow blades were being used by the enemy side.

(By the way, I have no idea who WAS in command of the Mordor army there. Was it Sauron himself? Was it the Mouth? Was it another unnamed Black Numenorean?)

[Scrooge]

I never got the impression that Gothmog was a Nazgul until coming to this forum. In fact, even before the movies I had assumed, perhaps foolishly, that it was an orc. I do believe that if it had been a Nazgul JRRT would have made it clear and we would not be debating it, given the limited number of them and the amount of time he spends specifying their presence in other, less important roles.

[Alcuin]

Originally Posted by Gordis

By the way, I have no idea who WAS in command of the Mordor army there. Was it Sauron himself? Was it the Mouth? Was it another unnamed Black Numenorean?

I don’t know who was in command at the Morannon, but it strikes me that Sauron did not need a messenger to summon the Nazgûl to Sammath Naur, did he?

The identity of Gothmog has been debated for many years. I have never seen a satisfactory solution to this, nor can I devise one for myself based upon the available texts.

[Gordis]

Originally Posted by Alcuin

I don’t know who was in command at the Morannon, but it strikes me that Sauron did not need a messenger to summon the Nazgûl to Sammath Naur, did he?

No he didn't - but it was not far between Barad Dur and Morannon. In Dol Guldur there was already a special messenger kept for communication.

Also I have an impression that Sauron needed a lot of concentration for distant Osanwe contact with the nazgul. He forgot the battle, forgot the orcs - all went downhill from there. Maybe Sauron also had to put on the Nine rings to reach the nazgul.

Whatever Gothmog may have been, he was most certainly no orc, IMO. Gothmog commanded Men, most of whom were not even from Mordor, but allies. Orcs sometimes commanded orcs, but I don't know of a single example of an orc commanding Men.

[Alcuin]

Exactly what Sauron thought Gandalf, his Elvish allies, and the Dúnedain and Rohirrim were up to, I don’t know. In “The Last Debate�, Gandalf suggests that Sauron believes that if he waits, then dissension will arise amongst the allies over control of the Ring.

I think I’ve laid out a reasonable case to argue that Sauron believed Aragorn had taken the Ring from the Halflings. That would mean that, while a Halfling might have carried the Ring to Lórien, Isildur’s Heir either left with it or took it shortly afterwards. That he might learn to wield it through lore gleaned from Elrond or Galadriel or even Gandalf would not be unreasonable or surprising.

What game Sauron believed Gandalf and the Elves were playing is guesswork. My guess would be that they would use Isildur’s Heir to do the dirty work, and then kill him and take them Ring. After all, Gandalf was in Minas Tirith before Aragorn, and he was with him all the way to Morannon. The Mouth of Sauron mostly addressed Gandalf at the Morannon, though he took pains to heap scorn upon Aragorn. (He was unsuccessful even without a Ring!)

I conclude that Sauron must have been convinced that Gandalf was behind all the scheming, or at least that he had some master plan for getting the Ring from Aragorn later on. That would fit with Saruman’s suspicions, because that’s similar to what Saruman planned to do himself, and Sauron already had been able to comprehend or deduce most of Saruman’s private designs and intrigues. I imagine that Sauron, thinking that Saruman knew Gandalf reasonably well, incorporated many of Saruman’s ideas and preconceptions about Gandalf into his own.

[Gordis]

The post I made for the other thread fits here as well Gandalf
I think Sauron was ever uncertain which one had the Ring: Aragorn or Gandalf...

[Alcuin]

I agree. I wish we had this in one thread rather than two. But I think that Sauron convinced himself that the whole thing was some master plan of Gandalf’s to supplant him. Saruman certainly seemed to believe that, and I think he had conveyed this to Sauron. So if Sauron didn’t believe Gandalf planned to take over the world before he began communicating with Saruman, he surely believed it afterwards.

Whatever he believed before or later, I think there is no question that after his encounter with Aragorn (whose name he did not learn until later) through the palantÃ*ri, he thought Aragorn had the Ring. That was why he struck so fast at Minas Tirith: to prevent Isildur’s Heir’s reaching it, taking command, and fouling all his carefully laid plans. That Aragorn did this anyway in an unforeseen way could only intensify and magnify Sauron’s fears and suspicions.

This is probably why the folks in Minas Morgul could not get Lugbúrz’s attention about the spies on the Stair who passed through Shelob’s Lair. Sauron clearly believed they were spies of some sort, but how did he sort out the carnage at the Tower of Cirith Ungol (would that be “Minas Cirith Ungol�?) and the report of the unfortunate Shagrat, whom he killed?

[Coffeehouse]

Originally Posted by Alcuin

Rereading The Lord of the Rings, it suddenly dawned upon me why from the moment Aragorn wrenched the Orthanc-stone away from its link with the old Ithil-stone in Barad-dûr, Sauron panicked. Once he saw Aragorn, he must have believed the Heir of Isildur had the Ring, and that he had begun to wield it.

When Frodo sat on Amon Hen wearing the One Ring, Sauron knew the Ringbearer was wearing the Ring, and he knew generally where he was. Frodo sensed him searching Amon Lhaw and Tol Brandir, and tore off the Ring just before Sauron checked Amon Hen.

Sauron’s reaction would be to grab his trusty palantÃ*r and start looking – and hard. Within an hour or so, maybe less, Sauron could see a man seated upon Amon Hen. Whether Sauron could determine that he was Dúnadan or not, I don’t know, but I suspect he could. Whom do you suppose Sauron would assume had been wearing the Ring? Who could that Man be?

The orcs seized Merry and Pippin. This Sauron knew. But neither he nor Saruman knew what had become of them: no orcs escaped. Perhaps he saw the Three Hunters chasing the orcs, but perhaps not: they were running along the messy track the orcs made, and they were wearing the grey cloaks of Lórien: he could easily have missed them. If missed them, that could only make him more anxious: how did the Man hide himself?

Like Saruman, Sauron probably believed Isengard strong enough to defeat Rohan. How did Saruman’s suffer twin defeats at Helm’s Deep and Isengard? Could the Ring be at work?

A Halfling looks into the palantÃ*r. Sauron believes Saruman has done this to torment the creature, and sends his erstwhile sidekick a message. But then…

The Heir of Isildur reveals himself, threatens him with Elendil’s sword reforged, refuses to speak to him, and wrenches control of the Stone of Orthanc away from him.

How did the Orthanc-stone fall into hands of Isildur’s Heir? Orthanc was still standing, and it was virtually impregnable. (Even to ents!) There was no sign of siege engines or that the fortress had been invested: it was just ... wrecked. Overnight. Kablooey.

The Halfling’s appearance must have been the Dúnadan probing the stone. From Sauron’s point of view, destroying an expendable person is a perfectly reasonable, acceptable practice.

After that, he would naturally misinterpret the dream-rhyme: the Sword-that-was-Broken was reforged in Imladris. Check. The Elven-spells made there had already proven stronger than all his Nazgûl, who were defeated near Imladris. Check. Isildur’s Bane had appeared with a Halfling. Check. Doom is near at hand. Uh-oh.

Sauron’s point of view:

• He senses the Ring being used and is able to narrow down where it might be. If he looks again using the palantÃ*r, he finds a Dúnadan on the Seat of Seeing where the Ring might have been.
• He doesn’t know what happened to the two Halflings he knows the orcs captured, and because the Three Hunters are cloaked with Galadriel’s weave and travelling in the orcs’ ruinous trail, he could miss them.
• The orc trail leads straight to Saruman.
• Saruman is suddenly uncommunicative.
• Saruman attacks Helm’s Deep with a superior army but is beaten.
• Isengard is wrecked at the same time, but no army is in sight.
• Orthanc itself is intact and looks undamaged.
• A Halfing looks into the stone. He has no message from Saruman.
• He is suddenly confronted with the Heir of Isildur using the Stone of Orthanc. The Dúnadan threatens him with Narsil reforged, and he rips the Stone of Orthanc from his control.

The Heir of Isildur must have his Ring. What will he do next? Go to Minas Tirith, of course! What to do? Stop him NOW!

Sauron has to keep the Heir of Isildur from reaching Minas Tirith. If he has the Ring, he can easily take command of the City and marshal all its forces, perhaps raising up who-knows-what long-forgotten weapons from the City’s ancient past. He might be able to resist the Nazgûl, or even take command of one or more of them.

The speed of Sauron’s attack was not just to strike first and hard. He had to prevent Isildur’s Heir from reaching Minas Tirith and establishing a strong rival power center with the Ring.

Yes it seems likely. It's the interpretation that the Lord of the Rings pictures offered. Sauron's army striking fast and hard on Minas Tirith as a casus belli to deny Isildur's Heir the opportunity to wield the ring powerfully and to prevent any potential challenge. It's a convincing line of reasoning actually.

[Gordis]

Originally Posted by Alcuin

Whatever he believed before or later, I think there is no question that after his encounter with Aragorn (whose name he did not learn until later) through the palantÃ*ri, he thought Aragorn had the Ring.

Or he believed Aragorn to be a champion of Gandalf - a candidature for a future nazgul, Gandalf's Witch-King, so to say: the one Gandalf, aided by the Ring, planned to put on the throne of Gondor. It would be the first step in Gandalf's taking over the World - much like Sauron himself acted back in the SA.
I don't think Sauron had any certainty on the matter but anyhow he had to prevent this guy from coming to Minas Tirith.

That was why he struck so fast at Minas Tirith: to prevent Isildur’s Heir’s reaching it, taking command, and fouling all his carefully laid plans. That Aragorn did this anyway in an unforeseen way could only intensify and magnify Sauron’s fears and suspicions.

Sure.

Originally Posted by Alcuin

This is probably why the folks in Minas Morgul could not get Lugbúrz’s attention about the spies on the Stair who passed through Shelob’s Lair. Sauron clearly believed they were spies of some sort, but how did he sort out the carnage at the Tower of Cirith Ungol (would that be “Minas Cirith Ungol”?) and the report of the unfortunate Shagrat, whom he killed?

At first Sauron paid the matter little attention, no doubt, but then, after Shagrat's report, he started wondering. I believe he thought these two guys (the hobbit and "a Mighty warrior") to be assassins, not spies. Shagrat had shown Sauron the mithril shirt of the hobbit: clear indication of the importance of the mission. Few spies would be clad in mithril, the price of the intelligence service would sky-rocket in this case. Assassins would be anther matter, if their target was important enough.

Who was their target? The hobbit was equipped with a Barrow-blade, exactly like the one that had brought about the Doom of the Witch King. So, the assassins were expecting to fight Nazgul. What about the "Mighty warrior" , the one who had passed Cirith Ungol unnoticed and managed to spirit away his companion held prisoner in the Tower? What sort of blade did HE have? What if he had Narsil Reforged? What if the assassins were going after Sauron himself?

I believe Sauron suspected that Gandalf had sent assasins to kill him. It would have been a very smart move for the Wannabe Ringlord - to kill Sauron quietly, stealthily, preventing any direct confrontation between the two Maiar...

I guess after Shagrat's report, Barad Dur was put on the TOP security level. Basically, the Mouth was sent to tell the Wannabe Ringlord - look, your attempt at assassination has failed and Sauron is aware of your designs. If you want to become the Ringlord, you will have to fight Sauron first.

[Coffeehouse]

Originally Posted by Gordis

I believe Sauron suspected that Gandalf had sent assasins to kill him. It would have been a very smart move for the Wannabe Ringlord - to kill Sauron quietly, stealthily, preventing any direct confrontation between the two Maiar...

I must say I sincerely doubt that Sauron ever felt that he was in mortal danger in Barad-dûr to the threat of assassins, sent by Gandalf or anyone else. Is there any textual evidence for this?

[Gordis]

Originally Posted by Coffeehouse

I must say I sincerely doubt that Sauron ever felt that he was in mortal danger in Barad-dûr to the threat of assassins, sent by Gandalf or anyone else. Is there any textual evidence for this?

Of course not!

[The Dread Pirate Roberts]

The assassin could have used Bard's black arrow reforged to shoot out the giant burning eyeball on top of Barad-dur. Clearly this is what Sauron feared most.

But seriously, I think the uncertainty about the Ring and what his enemies were doing motivated a lot of Sauron's actions. When he knew what was going on in most of the places he cared about, he seemed more patient and thoughtful. When doubt and uncertainty arose, that seemed to spur more spontaneous action. Not that he wasn't already planning the war but the text shows that he sped up his timetable, or at least Aragorn and Gandalf thought so.