Saruman'a actions in summer 3018

[Earniel]

Originally Posted by Coffeehouse

One reason may be that Sarumann knew the Rangers were keeping an eye out on the area. Which leads to me a question which is sort of off-topic for this thread; where were all these Rangers in the miles between the Shire and Rivendell? Weren't there supposed to be more than Strider roaming the area? They certainly must have done a poor job of it by the looks of it.

I believe it was Gandalf who mentioned to the Hobbits something of the Rangers having kept the Shire safe without the Hobbits knowing they were there, so it is likely the rangers did act, but without us knowing what. They attempted to keep out the nazgul too but they weren't up to that. Clearly they were spread rather thin, because after Halbarad and his men went to join Aragorn, the watch seemed to have ceased.

And if Saruman knew of them, it might be because they had at times hindered his plans or spies.

[Gordis]

I still don't think the Rangers at Sarn Ford would have hindered the head of the White Council in any way. Note also that the Dunlending, Saruman's spy, had been to the Shire itself and was able to compile the lists of names and maps. The Rangers let him in, despite his orcish looks - and I think it was because he could proove that he was a dealer from Isengard coming on trade business. It was Saruman's authority that let him through.

The Rangers were suspicious, but did not actually refuse entry to the servants of Saruman – for Gandalf was not at liberty to warn them, and when he had gone off to Isengard Saruman was still recognised as an ally. -UT

But I think Galin has found the main answer.

[The Dunlending] had orders also to get into the Shire if possible and learn if there had been any departures of persons well-known recently. He was well supplied with maps, lists of names, and notes concerning the Shire.-UT

Note: the spy had to inquire about persons recently departed from the Shire. Thus Saruman seems to be sure that Gandalf, before coming to Orthanc, DID warn the Ringbearer of the danger. He expected the ringbearer would fly straight away.

But where to? Here Saruman likely considered 2 possibilities:

1. On one hand, if Gandalf really wanted the Ring for himself, he wouldn't send the ringbearer to Rivendell, instead he would find a safe place outside of the Shire for the hobbit to hide. To trace the hobbit to this place would then require time and some cooperation from the hobbit's relatives or friends in the Shire. In this task Saruman mannish spies (or better even hobbit spies) would have a lot of advantages over the nazgul. The latter didn't really inspire trust in anyone and would likely be unable to get the necessary information from the hobbits.
2. On the other hand, indeed Saruman may have pondered the meaning of the dream-words sent to Boromir and Faramir that Galin has quoted.

[Saruman] believed also (knowing of the oracular dream-words and of Boromir's mission) that the Ring had gone and was already on the way on Rivendell.-UT The Hunt for the Ring version C

Indeed, the oracular words strongly implied that the Ring would come to Rivendell:
Seek for the Sword that was broken:
In Imladris it dwells;
There shall be counsels taken
Stronger than Morgul-spells.
There shall be shown a token
That Doom is near at hand,
For Isildur's Bane shall waken,
And the Halfling forth shall stand.
It Saruman believed the authority who sent the dream (and it had to be either the Valar or Eru), then it was simply useless to try to prevent the Ring from coming to Rivendell. It was preordained and trying to hinder it would only compromise Saruman both before the White Council and before Sauron.

In both cases it was wiser to stay in Isengard, and keep Sauron appeased over the Palantir.

[The Dread Pirate Roberts]

Originally Posted by Jon S.

Saruman's actions are really not even worth further thought compared to Sauron's. At the point in time where he knew Frodo had the Ring, had he *literally* bent all his will and resources towards it, it would have been a short story instead of a novel. That is truly inexplicable to me.

Could you clarify this position? Just when do you think Sauron knew Frodo had the Ring? Even if the washed-out Nazgul reported to him that Frodo had the Ring at the ford, there was no reason for Sauron to think the Elves, the Rangers, and Gandalf would let him hang on to it.

I don't think Sauron knew Frodo had the Ring until he put it on and claimed it at Mount Doom.

[Attalus]

Originally Posted by Jon S.

Saruman's actions are really not even worth further thought compared to Sauron's. At the point in time where he knew Frodo had the Ring, had he *literally* bent all his will and resources towards it, it would have been a short story instead of a novel. That is truly inexplicable to me.

I don't think that until the climax in the Sammath Naur, Sauron knew that Frodo bore the Ring. Of course, after Gollum ratted, he knew that it was held by "Baggins," but he did not even know where the Shire lay, much less what or where a Baggins was. At another point, we are told that he had "long known it was abroad, borne by a Hobbit." But, after the fal of Saruman and Aragorn's taunting him through the Stone, he seems to have been convinced that it had been taken to Minas Tirith, hence his over-soon assault on it.

[Coffeehouse]

Originally Posted by Gordis

What was it? Miscalculation? Cowardice?
What do you think?

Originally Posted by Eärniel

I doubt Saruman left Orthanc very often at this stage, he seemed to prefer working through agents rather than doing any dirty job himself.
[...]
So maybe he didn't want to go himself into Shire, and while he had spies and business ties there, he may not have had any servant in the Shire that he dared to trust with handling the Ring and bringing it to Orthanc.
[...]
And going himself may have been too risky.
[...]
I also doubt Saruman would have been able to walk into Bags' End so easily. While Gandalf spoke in decent terms about him to Frodo, Saruman had no idea of knowing how he would be received.

Coming back to your original question Gordis, I think this answer by Eärniel gives the most reasonable explanation for Saruman's inaction. That Saruman simply wasn't inclined to leave the safety of Orthanc. Inside these walls he could play his double-faced game of diplomacy and still retain some leverage. By going outside of the confines of Orthanc the by-now obviously paranoid wizard would be left vulnerable to all the real and imagined allies that Gandalf had, and the real threat of cohesion that the Nazgûl could exert. He was, I believe, a coward.

[Earniel]

The side discussion about the Nazgûl in the Prancing Pony has been moved to its own thread here.

[Alcuin]

Once Gandalf escaped, Saruman’s position was doubly dangerous: the Nazgûl knew or suspected that he had betrayed Sauron, a bit of information that would not be long in reaching their master. Gandalf knew that Saruman had betrayed his sacred trust, his duty, and his Order. Had Saruman left Orthanc, he would have been exposed, weaker outside his fortress, and liable to capture himself by the Elves once Gandalf reported his imprisonment.

Tolkien points out (in Letters, if I recall aright) that had one of the Wise obtained the Ring, he would have followed the policies pursued by Sauron in order to fight Sauron, building up his power and using proxies and lieutenants to wage war against Mordor. Saruman was already in that mindset, having been corrupted by lust for the Ring because he coveted it. (Hence the commandment against coveting.)