Voter Demographics

[Radagast]

Admin note - This discussion has gone in a completely different direction from the original thread, and we're talking about general demographic trends as opposed to the upcoming election. I've split the thread for this reason.

That's always fascinated me. Universities, and what you call 'colleges' (which I think are the same thing?), in which education is pursued at the highest level, which generally attracts the brightest and the best, has left wing leanings. These minds which have been exposed to so much of humanities history and experience, have come down on the left side of the fence. Interesting.

While generally your average working class gun-totin' USAmerican who has had little to no formal education has right wing leanings. This would therefore lead one to assume that in America the educated seem to be inclined to choose the Democrats. How very interesting.

I would like everyone to note, by the way, that I'm a Tory and thus support the equivalent of your Republican Party.

[jerseydevil]

Originally Posted by Radagast

That's always fascinated me. Universities, and what you call 'colleges' (which I think are the same thing?), in which education is pursued at the highest level, which generally attracts the brightest and the best, has left wing leanings. These minds which have been exposed to so much of humanities history and experience, have come down on the left side of the fence. Interesting.

While generally your average working class gun-totin' USAmerican who has had little to no formal education has right wing leanings. This would therefore lead one to assume that in America the educated seem to be inclined to choose the Democrats. How very interesting.

I would like everyone to note, by the way, that I'm a Tory and thus support the equivalent of your Republican Party.

That is the most BIGOTTED and ASSININE statement I have ever heard from you. This statement just shows your complete ignorance of AMERICANS.

[Radagast]

Do you actually realise that I have a wife who is American by birth?

[jerseydevil]

Originally Posted by Radagast

Do you actually realise that I have a wife who is American by birth?

And that's supposed to matter why?

[Ben]

Radagast is correct in his generalizations. The more education one has, the more likely one is to vote Democratic. Interestingly, the more money one has, the more likely one is to vote Republican. However, the more education one has, the more money someone is likely to make. I'm not entirely sure how to reconcile all of those ideas, but political science is fascinating .

Let's not devolve into personal attacks, but I just don't see any bigotry or even provocation in Radagast's post. He's even a conservative, just observing trends he sees overseas. Where is his error, let alone "bigotry"?

Also, when I get around to it, I plan on responding to everything posted in this topic in the last couple days. Just a heads up (and a hope that you guys won't post 50 replies in the next day, making my work harder )

Edit - Another heads up: At some point, I'll remove all the replies that aren't on-topic (i.e., the personal sniping).

[Radagast]

And that I also attended an American university for my postgraduate degree? I am merely combating the fact that you say I am ignorant of America. I am obviously not. It has become your standard benchmark response to call someone ignorant of the most copied nation in the world, a kneejerk reaction you give to evade the point.

[jerseydevil]

Originally Posted by bmilder

Radagast is correct in his generalizations. The more education one has, the more likely one is to vote Democratic. Interestingly, the more money one has, the more likely one is to vote Republican. However, the more education one has, the more money someone is likely to make. I'm not entirely sure how to reconcile all of those ideas, but political science is fascinating .

I do think it's bigotted - as you pointed out - the people who make money are generally very educated - people who are poor and have less education are actually more likely to vote democractic - so how do you reconcile that?

Republican vs democrat has more to do whether you want self-responsiblity or want a mommy state. I was poor growing up - but my parents were republican - because they wanted to enjoy the fruits of their hard earned money.

[jerseydevil]

Originally Posted by Radagast

And that I also attended an American university for my postgraduate degree? I am merely combating the fact that you say I am ignorant of America. I am obviously not. It has become your standard benchmark response to call someone ignorant of the most copied nation in the world, a kneejerk reaction you give to evade the point.

Well let me say - your statement of "gun toting americans" and of the republican party versus the democratic party is what I was basing my concept of you off of. Did you get out - or did you spend most of your time with like minded people? Because if you did just spend time with like minded people - then you still don't know much about America. You still can have a preconceived narrow minded view of America.

As for being the most copied nation in the world - yeah we are - but that doesn't mean that people outside america know or understand anything about America just becuase they see our tv shows, or watch our movies. That is all superficial.

[Rían]

Originally Posted by bmilder

Radagast is correct in his generalizations. The more education one has, the more likely one is to vote Democratic. Interestingly, the more money one has, the more likely one is to vote Republican. However, the more education one has, the more money someone is likely to make. I'm not entirely sure how to reconcile all of those ideas, but political science is fascinating .

Y'know, Ben, I think you're not quite right about the education thing. I think you're thinking of the education field; not education in general. That's why it didn't reconcile.

I would say that people in the FIELD of education are more likely to vote Democratic. However, in fields like engineering (my field ), there are people that are HIGHLY educated, yet in general will vote Republican. Do you see what I mean?

[Rían]

Originally Posted by Radagast

That's always fascinated me. Universities, and what you call 'colleges' (which I think are the same thing?), in which education is pursued at the highest level, which generally attracts the brightest and the best, has left wing leanings. These minds which have been exposed to so much of humanities history and experience, have come down on the left side of the fence. Interesting.

Again, as I said to bmilder, you're talking about only some areas of education; i.e., the "humanities".

While generally your average working class gun-totin' USAmerican who has had little to no formal education has right wing leanings.

"average"?!?! Sheesh! I think you're totally wrong. The stereotype that I've seen is these people tend to vote DEMOCRAT.

This would therefore lead one to assume that in America the educated seem to be inclined to choose the Democrats.

University staff (i.e., people that live outside the "real world" ) tend to vote Democratic. Those in the "humanities" where there's lots of subjective philosophy tend to vote Democratic. In my experience, those in the less subjective areas of study tend to vote Republican.

[jerseydevil]

Originally Posted by RÃ*an

Y'know, Ben, I think you're not quite right about the education thing. I think you're thinking of the education field; not education in general. That's why it didn't reconcile.

I would say that people in the FIELD of education are more likely to vote Democratic. However, in fields like engineering (my field ), there are people that are HIGHLY educated, yet in general will vote Republican. Do you see what I mean?

That is a very good point. The people in the Ivory Tower who haven't gotten out in the real world and actually worked in a company and experienced life outside the campus are more likely to vote demoncratic. While VERY educated people in the real world vote republican.

[Valandil]

I don't know if Radagast intended offense (I'll assume not) but I think his generalizations were inadequate. As Rian said, the educated educators... and also others who are in other 'public service' jobs are often more liberal, while those in the private sector are often more conservative. Also, I've known LOTS of people with low education who vote Democrat. Some of them rely on public support... others are very strongly pro-labor union, which is often associated with the Democratic Party in our country (including lots of those gun-totin' working class folk).

Radagast, if you spent time at an American University, maybe it's just possible that this gave you a slightly skewed view of America as a whole. Americans, like other people, are complicated folks, and you'll find all sorts voting in each camp. Most figure out what is important to them (pro-business, pro-union, pro-choice, pro-life, etc, etc) and vote accordingly.

[jerseydevil]

Originally Posted by Valandil

I don't know if Radagast intended offense (I'll assume not)

I would have assumed he didn't intend any offense if he hadn't used that ridiculous "USAmerican" term. That to me was a clear sign of his contempt.

As for your comment regarding people of many different beliefs and economic status voting for republican or democrat - that is similar to what I try to explain to Jonathan. We don't vote for the party - we vote for the person. The majority of Americans don't follow the party - we follow the candidates. I have my key issues I believe in and that is what I am basing how I will vote. I would probably have no problem voting for Lieberman - except that I don't think it would be good for Middle Eastern relations and the fight against terrorism. kerry does not support my key issues - therefore I will not be voting for him.

[Ben]

Originally Posted by RÃ*an

Y'know, Ben, I think you're not quite right about the education thing. I think you're thinking of the education field; not education in general. That's why it didn't reconcile.

I would say that people in the FIELD of education are more likely to vote Democratic. However, in fields like engineering (my field ), there are people that are HIGHLY educated, yet in general will vote Republican. Do you see what I mean?

It sounds counterintuitive, but I am in fact correct. I was referring to people with post-graduate degrees, and by large margins, they favor Democrats. This phenomenon was discussed in my government class last year and I remembered it.

Here's some numbers:

Exit Polls from 1996 Presidential Election, CNN

Clinton won the post-graduate vote by 52% to 40%, while losing the $100k + vote by 38 to 54.

Then take a look at the exit polls for 2000

Gore won the postgrad vote by 52% to 44% - an 8 point lead, compared to less than 1% nationwide. Again, the $100k-earners favored Bush by 54-43. That's exactly what I was talking about, and it's fascinating.

I have not looked up stats about humanities college professors, but I do not believe that there are that many that they, by themselves, throw the category of post-graduate degree-holders to the Democrats. Sure, with 44% of post-grads voting Republican, you'll know some, but this demographic group is solidly Democratic as a whole, which is what I said. Maybe you are right about engineering professors or other professionals trending Republican, or perhaps they favor Democrats by smaller margins. This is something fascinating to look into, but it doesn't change the fact that my original assertion is correct.

Rian and JD, please posts stats to back up your assertions about highly educated voters. If you can find a breakdown of post-graduate voters by profession, maybe you can prove your hypothesis.

We can parse Radagast's statement, which is either partially true or completely true, depending on how you look at it.

Originally Posted by Radagast

generally your average working class gun-totin' USAmerican who has had little to no formal education has right wing leanings

Gun owners do in fact vote Republican. The 2000 exit poll shows that gun-owners went to Bush by the huge margin of 61% to 36%. The data also shows that the "working class" went to Gore by 51-46, but they only made up 18% of the electorate, so I don't believe that the "average" American was to be found in their ranks. The "middle class," comprising 46% of the electorate, went to Bush by 49-48, and those without college-degrees were split between the candidates 48-48.

So yes, taken together, your "average working class gun-totin'" citizen leans Republican, and if you interpret the phrase to be "average working class gun-totin" citizen, the group is solidly GOP. If you parse all the adjectives separately, he is correct about average, incorrect about working class, correct about "gun-totin'," and mixed about education.

[jerseydevil]

Originally Posted by bmilder

It sounds counterintuitive, but I am in fact correct. I was referring to people with post-graduate degrees, and by large margins, they favor Democrats. This phenomenon was discussed in my government class last year and I remembered it.

Here's some numbers:

Exit Polls from 1996 Presidential Election, CNN

Clinton won the post-graduate vote by 52% to 40%, while losing the $100k + vote by 38 to 54.

Then take a look at the exit polls for 2000

Gore won the postgrad vote by 52% to 44% - an 8 point lead, compared to less than 1% nationwide. Again, the $100k-earners favored Bush by 54-43. That's exactly what I was talking about, and it's fascinating.

I have not looked up stats about humanities college professors, but I do not believe that there are that many that they, by themselves, throw the category of post-graduate degree-holders to the Democrats. Sure, with 44% of post-grads voting Republican, you'll know some, but this demographic group is solidly Democratic as a whole, which is what I said. Maybe you are right about engineering professors or other professionals trending Republican, or perhaps they favor Democrats by smaller margins. This is something fascinating to look into, but it doesn't change the fact that my original assertion is correct.

The thing is - professors are POST-GRADUATE though. There are fewer post-graduates in the real world I believe. For one thing - as Rian said - it's humanities and so forth "the soft education" that people generally get post graudate degrees for. So I think the numbers are skewed.

It doesn't mean your original assertion is necessarily correct though - there are several variables at work. We can equally say that the democratic party iis the party of "no-education" and "low wage earners" voters.

I also feel there is more than having a post graduate degree as a sign of being educated. There is EXPANDING your education OUTSIDE the classroom also. Postgraudate just means they spent most of their time in a classroom - and very little actually experiencing life.

Rian and JD, please posts stats to back up your assertions about highly educated voters. If you can find a breakdown of post-graduate voters by profession, maybe you can prove your hypothesis.

We can parse Radagast's statement, which is either partially true or completely true, depending on how you look at it.

I don't think his statements are in any way true. I think it's the way the numbers are compared - and unless you can get the RAW data - there is no way to really compare who votes republican versus democrat. As I said - what it boils down to is who wants self responsibility - versus who wants a mommy state.

I find it VERY insulting for you and for him to say the republican party is made up of uneducated voters. For one thing - it doesn't take into account the amount of additional education many employees go through to get to that 100,000k amount. It's not necessarily post-graduate - but they are equally and in some cases more educated. Education doesn't stop at the classroom or include only the classroom.

Gun owners do in fact vote Republican. The 2000 exit poll shows that gun-owners went to Bush by the huge margin of 61% to 36%. The data also shows that the "working class" went to Gore by 51-46, but they only made up 18% of the electorate, so I don't believe that the "average" American was to be found in their ranks. The "middle class," comprising 46% of the electorate, went to Bush by 49-48, and those without college-degrees were split between the candidates 48-48.

What would be REALLY interesting would be to see how many people who carry illegal guns vote democrat or republican - since the democratic gun laws don't affect them at all - because they're already breaking the law.

So yes, taken together, your "average working class gun-totin'" citizen leans Republican, and if you interpret the phrase to be "average working class gun-totin" citizen, the group is solidly GOP. If you parse all the adjectives separately, he is correct about average, incorrect about working class, correct about "gun-totin'," and mixed about education.

Actually - most republicans use guns for protection or for hunting. I don't own a gun - never have - so i really resent the implication and snideness of the term "gun-totin".

[Valandil]

Originally Posted by bmilder

Rian and JD, please posts stats to back up your assertions about highly educated voters. If you can find a breakdown of post-graduate voters by profession, maybe you can prove your hypothesis.

Well... I don't have statistics to back this up, but lots of folks have debates and discussions solely based on opinion and anecdotal information.

Actually, I'm not at all fluent with looking up statistics like these on the internet... plus, I have a natural aversion / distrust of numbers of those sorts (in general)... because I know how subtle shades of wording in a poll can widely affect the outcome of a poll.

[jerseydevil]

Originally Posted by Valandil

Well... I don't have statistics to back this up, but lots of folks have debates and discussions solely based on opinion and anecdotal information.

Actually, I'm not at all fluent with looking up statistics like these on the internet... plus, I have a natural aversion / distrust of numbers of those sorts (in general)... because I know how subtle shades of wording in a poll can widely affect the outcome of a poll.

That's why i think it's very important to see the exact question and the raw numbers. there are so many variables when looking at numbers. My problem with Ben and Radagast is they are only looking at post-graduates as being "educated". That's bull. I can take or sit in on classes at princeton - but that doesn't show up as me being anymore educated. I can read, take seminars - and it still doesn't show as me being educated. I think that's where the numbers are truly screwed up and misleading. Living life itself is education.

[brownjenkins]

i think some of the tendencies go to the heart of the belief systems... educational intellectuals are encouraged to question everything... which is more akin to 'liberal' beliefs

conservatives tend to idealize the past and put certain things such as the constitution and basic moral values beyond question... so they are more likely to stay away from universities and other areas that debate these very core issues

this is not to say that either is 'smarter'... more that your station in life tends to reflect the beliefs you hold

[jerseydevil]

Actually - according toNational Election Studies - Republicans are the more educated party according to the 2002 results. They combine College/Post-Graduate results.

[edit about National Election Studies]
The mission of the National Election Studies (NES) is to produce high quality data on voting, public opinion, and political participation that serve the research needs of social scientists, teachers, students, policy makers and journalists concerned with the theoretical and empirical foundations of mass politics in a democratic society.

Party Identification 3-Point Scale 1952-2002
(I am just posting the last year numbers, 2002 or 2000)

"Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a
Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or what?"

(IF REPUBLICAN OR DEMOCRAT) "Would you call yourself a strong
(REPUBLICAN/DEMOCRAT) or a not very strong (REPUBLICAN/DEMOCRAT)?"

(IF INDEPENDENT, OTHER [1966 and later: OR NO PREFERENCE] "Do you
think of yourself as closer to the Republican or Democratic party?"

--------------------------------------------------------

Democrats (including leaners)...

2002
Grade Sch./Some High Sch 60
High School Diploma 52
Some College, no Degree 50
College Degree/ Post-grad 42


Income and profession is 2000 numbers

Income 0-16 Percentile 62
Income 17-33 Percentile 52
Income 34-67 Percentile 47
Income 68-95 Percentile 50
Income 96-100 Percentile 36

Professionals 46
White Collar 50
Blue Collar 55
Unskilled 50*
Farmers 51*
Housewives 48

Republicans (including leaners)...

2002
Grade Sch./Some High Sch. 31
High School Diploma 38
Some College, no Degree 44
College Degree/ Post-grad 53

2000
Income 0-16 Percentile 22
Income 17-33 Percentile 33
Income 34-67 Percentile 40
Income 68-95 Percentile 40
Income 96-100 Percentile 54

Professionals 44
White Collar 37
Blue Collar 31
Unskilled 25*
Farmers 41*
Housewives 38

Independents...

Grade Sch./Some High Sch. 10
High School Diploma 10
Some College, no Degree 6
College Degree/ Post-grad 5

Income 0-16 Percentile 14
Income 17-33 Percentile 13
Income 34-67 Percentile 13
Income 68-95 Percentile 10
Income 96-100 Percentile 10

Professionals 10
White Collar 12
Blue Collar 13
Unskilled 23*
Farmers 8*
Housewives 12

* numbers followed by an asterisk indicate 50 or fewer total respondents within group

As you can see - the Democratic Party has 60% of the grade school/SOME High school vote while the Republicans get 53% of the College educated vote whereas the Democrats only get 42% of the college educated vote.

I think this blows your hypothesis out of the water Ben and Radagast that democrats is the party of more educated voters.

Another great site is Vote Smart which I use.

[jerseydevil]

Originally Posted by brownjenkins

i think some of the tendencies go to the heart of the belief systems... educational intellectuals are encouraged to question everything... which is more akin to 'liberal' beliefs

conservatives tend to idealize the past and put certain things such as the constitution and basic moral values beyond question... so they are more likely to stay away from universities and other areas that debate these very core issues

Oh - republicans question things - we just don't have an idealistic view of the world like most democrats. That is the main difference I think.

As for the Constitution - it is the the foundation of our government - it is our government. Unlike in Europe and Israel where the PM and his party is called "The Governemt" - the president is not the government here. The Constitution of the United States is what protects our rights as citizens and is what protects the states from the encroachment of the federal government.